In fields of study that become specialized there become a school of thought about how the thing works. In schools the basics concepts are reduced to schematics representing the concept to be taught. Somewhere in the course of study they forget to tell the student “this is just a representation of how it works”, in the real world it is a lot more complicated than is represented in this diagram. We are just showing you this to give you a basic understanding of how we think it works. So separate idea constructs are assigned names and processes, studied as individual themes, and papers get written and published about the concepts as if they real properties of the Atmosphere.

In the case of Meteorology, there are whole fields of studies that take on a life of their own, SOI, PDO, ENSO, Rossby waves, Jet streams, Ionosphere, magnetosphere, solar wind, solar activity, sunspot cycles, weather and climate. Never realizing that they are in reality smoothly interconnected and not just severed parts of a working whole thing, like a live frog before dissection into the neat little parts lying in the tray at the end of class. However the young farmer’s son that plays at the pond all summer, can tell you more about how those frogs live on a day to day basis.

One man’s attempt to understand it all, Charles L. Chandler

http://charles-chandler.org/Geophysics/Tornadoes%20Main.php

People who have read previous versions of this work might be surprised to see that the contentions herein continue to evolve. Unlike “academic” works, where the objective is to take a position and then defend it for credibility’s sake, the objective of this work is to be as comprehensive and accurate as possible. Hence this work has changed, as comments and criticisms from readers like you have created opportunities for improvements, and it will continue to change. This causes confusion, but that’s better than tenacity in the face of legitimate criticisms. Perhaps this will always be a work-in-progress, as it is doubtful that any of us will live to see something as complex as a tornadic supercell completely described. But if we should ever have to choose between truth and credibility, we must always choose truth, because credibility isn’t worth much without it. And while this work is still very speculative, it is nevertheless arguable that it has emerged as the most complete theory of supercells and tornadoes ever presented to the public. So the method is working, and therefore, it will persist.

http://www.docweather.com/4/show/211/

The phenomenon of the effects of declination on the jet stream of the eastern Pacific can be related to the work of a Chinese researcher LI Guoqing of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, in Beijing. The paper entitled, 27.3 and 13.6 day Atmospheric Tide and Lunar Forcing on Atmospheric Circulation [PDF] researches the influence of the earth’s length of day (LOD) in relation to the geopotential height of the 500mb fields in the eastern Pacific and the declination of the moon. It was found that there is an alternating increase and decrease in geopotential height in the eastern Pacific in approximately seven day cycles that are keyed not to the phases of the moon but to the declination of the moon. The different modes of the declination response were that during the times when the moon was at a maximum declination north or south there was a corresponding speeding up of the earth’s rate of diurnal rotation according to measurements done with the atomic clock in France. The speeding up of the earth had the effect of shifting air masses to the west in the eastern Pacific.

A search for “Lunar declinational atmospheric tides” or just “Lunar declinational tides” will turn up many good studies on the value of  adding these studies to the forecast models.  Here is a good site for finding related research, most papers are behind pay to view  windows.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science

http://www.scichina.com:8080/sciDe/EN/article/downloadArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=307470

Page 1

ENSO Modulations by 14.7  day – and 18.6 yr – Lunar cycles, by Claire Perigaud of Caltech/Jet Propulsion Laboratory

“Using various independent satellite data sets, we find vigorous biweekly reversals of cross-equatorial currents and winds. In the 3 tropical oceans, the Tropical Instability Waves (TIW) extracted from altimetry match the dispersion diagram of a well-organized train of Mixed-Rossby-Gravity Waves with the highest frequency at 14.7 days.” (just part of abstract)

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/documents/OSTST/2009/poster/Perigaudabstract.pdf

and the 8 megabit pdf of the whole study

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/documents/OSTST/2009/poster/Perigaud.pdf

A study on Earthquake production and many aspects of the Lunar orbital parameters for the Japan area.

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthchanges/gallery/Quakes/japan_quakes.htm

Research into the Lunar declinational tides back in 1948, that got passed over somehow.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1948PASP…60..259W

Study on the timing of the magnetic rotation of the sun and the lunar declinational maximal atmospheric effects, they did not understand the meridional tidal movement, but only saw the height tidal effects at the time.

So how to show what was obvious, that the declinational flow surges from the lunar tides, produce most of the severe weather outbreaks, and drives both the short period, and decade length atmospheric patterns of ocean basin oscillations, I thought? Since the correlation seen in the severe weather outbreaks was so pronounced.

Tornadoes are very hard to forecast with the models, so I tried sorting patterns of tornado production, by periods of 27.32 days, to look for patterns in the 18.6 Mn cycle, and compare the 19 year Metonic cycle, to the other side bands, the ~18 year period Saros cycles, ~6558 day cycles. The data base used starts with January 1, 1950 and runs to end of 2009.

Results posted below….

First graph is the way tornado production is looked at by the mainstream, total number by Julian date….

Tornado production by date (click to enlarge)

verses the way it looks expanded vertically by lunar declination on the Y axis X axis still Julian date…

Tornado production by date expanded by lunar declination (click to enlarge)

The 2009 tornado production and 6558 day period past patterns expanded out with color legend

2009 Tornado production expanded for clarity, in all plots the bubble volume indicates total number of tornadoes per day, and are color coded in order of cycle#1 blue,2 red, 3 green, current orange.

The repeating 19 year Metonic cycle pattern expanded out.

19 year Metonic cycle pattern expanded out.(click to enlarge)

When I looked at the plotting by Saros cycle, the patterns snapped together much better, and shows tighter, more repeatable patterns, meaning the inner planets being included helped.

Tornado production by Saros cycle of 6585 days (click to enlarge)

Because of the 240 / 241 Lunar Declination Tide (LDT4) four fold symmetry used to produce the weather maps, I also plotted the 6558 day cycle as well.

Tornado production by 6558 day cycle (click to enlarge)

For additional close up inspection I also show expanded three year segments of the above, so you could look at the effects of the rhythmic clumping as the atmospheric declinational tides come in and out of phase with the natural period peaks when the Lunar and Solar apparent declinational angle is  23.5 degrees.   The forecast maps use a slightly different starting date synchronization, as discussed in the text portions. To compensate on seasonal drift of the patterns, for a better lock into the present cycle.

Below is an expanded scale of the production for 2008, 2009 and would be 2010, to compare the past Metonic cycles to the present cycle, for a better detailed comparison, for forecasting of probabilities.

Metonic cycle pattern expanded for 2008 - 2010 overlap (click to enlarge)

Then the same current three years referenced by the Saros cycle past history…

Saros cycle pattern expanded for 2008 - 2010 overlap (click to enlarge)

Then the same current three years for the 6558 day long period.

6558 day cyclic pattern expanded for 2008 - 2010 overlap (click to enlarge)

Either way I display the Saros or 6558 day pattern there will be a skewing of the date from one cycle to the next, that shifts the relative date the current pattern, falls on from the past patterns. More investigation needs to be done to establish the best combination of sorting the cycles and their interactions for the best answer to use in forecasting the timing and expected numbers of  current cycle tornado  production. There seems to be more tornadoes when there are fewer hurricanes and vis versa, something to do with the blending of the harmonics, and power contained in the resultant size of the system, changing with beat frequency.

There is a lot going on in the magnetic interaction of the solar output with the outer planetary coupling via the solar wind as the earth passes them, this spring on the 22nd March the moon is Maximum north and we are having a Synod conjunction with Saturn which should bring in an additional tidal surge of positively charges air mass, to wring out a lot more moisture the week after the 20th, that will be generating tornadoes here.

When this surge comes up into the Northern mid-latitudes, it will be bringing moisture that is carried in an air mass that will have a higher dew point that the surface temperature of the ground underneath of it. As this overruns the surface it will push the heat of condensation into the colder ground, bringing the temp of the top soil up to the dew point during the night, and letting the sun warm it during the day, irregardless of any heat transfer via rain fall. This happens every spring but also every, Synod conjunction as well to some extent, and shows up as part of the background global warming signal, as they like to call it. (Also the method of positive ion induction into glacial ice to promote glacial surging.)

With the heliocentric passing or Synod conjunctions of outer planets like we had with Neptune and Uranus, due to their slow relative movement across the star field, the (felt annually) total combined field strength as the earth passed them kept growing, up to the point of their heliocentric conjunction on April 20^th 1993, then started to decrease again. The Earth passed them on July12th in 1993, and as they started to separate again by about ~3 days further apart per year, as seen from the earth’s orbit, their combined magnetic fields strength dropped off and spread out, as well as shifted (~2.5 days for Neptune, ~4.5 days per year for Uranus) later into the year.
Their combined effects were felt until around 2005 the same time the Lunar declination angle peaked and started to decline producing the surge of hurricanes during that period. The addition warm moisture brought into the mid-latitudes from these alignments occurred in mid summer. Now these surges are bringing in the moisture that is being used to produce the wet falls and “unusual” snows in lower latitudes due to the slower solar activity, and I fully expect the wetter falls and massive winter snows for the NE USA and Europe to continue for quite a while (until those big planets move further past the fall and winter seasons, into spring). Then expect much more heavy rains in the springs until they separate enough to look “normal” again.