[Does not go into the interplanetary solar wind induction and barycenter movements of the sun , effecting the mechanism of actions possible but lays bare the trends that will be found with the introspection of the electromagnetic, gravitational, and tidal forces among and between the solar system bodies as they interact to remain in the center of the heliopause, suspended on the furthest outlying closed loops of the solar wind magnetic fields, with a foam of turbulent small particles.]
Implications and Consequence of Flat Temperatures for 16 plus years and No Tropical Troposphere Hot Spot
The fact that there has been no planetary warming for 16 plus years and the fact that atmospheric temperatures have not increased at roughly 10 km above the surface, in the tropics as the CO2 warming theory predicts when CO2 increased, disproves the extreme AWG paradigm. A lack of warming can be explained away, in the short term, with heating hiding in the ocean or some unexplained mechanism that is cooling the planet. Hansen’s particulate reflection hypothesis fails to explain the lack of warming, as particulates do not move from hemisphere to hemisphere unlike atmospheric gases such as CO2 which equalize in about a year between hemispheres. The particulates are emitted in the Northern Hemisphere which is where the warming has occurred, particularly at high Northern Latitudes. The lack of warming has occurred in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere. (i.e. The lack of warming mechanism must explain the fact that observed warming has not been global.) There is no explanation for the fact that there is not observed warming of tropical troposphere (10 km) tropical troposphere hot spot. (The lack of a tropical troposphere hot spot is just ignored.)
Unequivocal planetary cooling, as opposed to a lack of warming is a game changer. The public will require, will demand a definite, logical, physical explanation for global cooling. There is now observation evidence of the start of a mechanism change which will lead to significant planetary cooling. (If and when there is unequivocal evidence of cooling, I can provide an explanation of how the sun is causing the cooling and what to expect if a solar forced Heinrich event is unfolding.) (more…)
When I added Canada and Australia, I dropped the local Contiguous USA local maps that were searchable by zip code, because the Canadian and Australian zip code differences would not let the program run for the whole package. I have now returned the local zip code searchable forecasts for just the contiguous US and will not be having the searchable local maps feature for the Canadian and Australian coverage areas.
I have added more delineations to the temp color scale, and moved it to the left side as requested by some users of my maps, compressed the top to allow the whole map to be viewed on smaller screens and/or with out so much scrolling when changing dates, countries, or parameters. The input data remains unchanged, as do the csv files drawn from the raw data to create these maps. Only the color scaling was changed, from the standard that the NWS was using, to a more natural color scheme based on vegetation reactions to temperatures, for the easier use by farmers. Clip of the new scale below.
From 0C to 5C when roots grow, but no grass top growth occurs the white (probable frost band) to yellow bands, from grass emergence to cooler season pea and legume sprouting the further blending from light blue to light green, and soil planting temps for most agricultural field crops in the light green to darker shades around 20C, then the optimal temps for photosynthesis for mature plants and most field crops is centered on a forest green at ~72 degrees F.
From about 78 degrees F to 82 degrees F a yellow band to show slight stress might be present in low humidity conditions, fading to browns from 83 to 92 degrees F reflecting probable stress in more humid conditions, and definite slowed growth in dry conditions, then from human body temperature and up, in the red shades that the NWS used for every thing above a comfortable 75-80 degrees F to be really scarey for the AGW meme.
I am hoping that this finer graduation of temp color scales will end most of the confusion that resulted in trying to read the massive range of the original yellow through orange, red to pink that covered an 80 degree F range or a 40 degree C range that tricked the eye into seeing it as almost all the same.
At 9:00 pm Phoenix time yesterday (2-17-2013) we started the re-upload of the maps with the new temperature color scale and the local area maps will be once again available, in 24 hours the server has regenerated 4 months of the maps from June 1,2012 through end of September 2012. We originally re-did the month of May 2012 with out converting the North American maps so we could see the difference, I chose to leave them that way so you could see the difference for your self. If you open one of the maps say May 15th http://www.aerology.com/?location=Usa&mapType=Tmax&date=5%2F15%2F2012 and flick between the North American and either the Canadian or USA maps you can easily see the difference.
It should take another ~10 days for the server to create all of the needed maps to cover all of 2013, 2014, and 2015, if all goes well and there are no unexpected interruptions, (took a 36 hour hiatus to make the remaining csv files that will allow us to continue to load maps until the 19 year limit of the process from the most recent data we have is reached, 2001 +19 = late December of 2020). We will be updating (the on site) color scale presentation as soon as the map re-production is up to ~ the current date, along with the additional graphic additions and changes to compress the top, put the temp scale on the left and make it work better for you as requested.
For farmers and the associated markets that depend on their production to survive, shifting from the High temps and the Precipitation patterns for each day as you go through the growing seasons of your choice should alert you to times when the heat and dryness combine to create crop yield decreases, like we had last year. If you review the July and August temps and precipitation forecasts on my pages it will school you on what to look for.
The powerful windstorms that swept across the US last week was captured by several different satellites. This type of storm, called a derecho, moved from Illinois to the Mid-Atlantic states on June 29, and the movie from NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite shows the storms’ sudden expansion and speed. The storms left a more than 1,000-km (700-mile) trail of destruction across the Midwest and mid-Atlantic, cutting power to millions and killing thirteen people.
A derecho (pronounced “deh-REY-cho”) is not your average, ordinary local summer thunderstorm. These are widespread, long-lived but rare wind storms that are usually associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Damage from a derecho is usually in one direction along a relatively straight track. By definition an event is classified a derecho if the wind damage swath extends more than 400 km (240 miles) and includes wind gusts of at least 93 km/h (58 mph) or greater along most of its length.
These storms occur in the United States during the late spring and summer, with more than three quarters occurring between April and August.
The movie begins on June 28 at 15:15 UTC (11:15 a.m. EDT) and ends on June 30, 2012 at 16:01 UTC (12:01 p.m. EDT). In the animation, the derecho’s clouds appear as a line in the upper Midwest on June 29 at 14:32. By 16:02 UTC, they appear as a rounded area south of Lake Michigan. By 21:32, the area of the derecho’s clouds were near Lake Erie and over Ohio expanding as the system track southeast. By 06:30 UTC, the size appears to have almost doubled as the derecho moves over West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia. At 02:32 UTC on June 30 (10:32 p.m. EDT), the Derecho was over the mid-Atlantic bringing a 160 km (100 mile) line of severe storms and wind gusts as high as 144 km/h (90 mph) to the region.
“It is interesting how the process is a self-sustaining process that is fed by a combination of atmospheric factors that all have to be in place at the same time,” said Joe Witte, a meteorologist in Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, Va. and a consultant to NASA. “That is why they are relatively rare: not all the elements line up that often.”
Part of the reason for the bow front storms (Derechos) is due to solar wind inductions into the earths magnetic field, and corresponding ion charge potentials between the poles and the equator due to homopolar generator effects. The more energetic the interactions between the suns production in spots and CMEs, (that put out short term surges in magnetic and ion flux,) the more is the effected storm strength and production. When the sun is active the shifts in polarity of the solar wind keep the storms active and spread out, when the magnetic field strength of the earth weakens and becomes stable for periods of time longer than about two weeks, then the polar to equatorial air mass interaction slows down giving rise to larger mid-latitude bands of clean dry air with low ion count. Blocking highs that occur in these areas produce droughts due to there is little precipitable water vapor, and no flux of ions into or out of the area to cause rainfall.
These spots develop low concentrations of ions due to the neutralizing effects of passing fronts, Further poleward you will find Negative ions abound (accounting for the acidic Ph of rain), and closer to the equator positive ions driven off of the ocean surface by wave action nebulization.
When the magnetic fields of the sun and the earth weaken the areas of neutral charged air masses increase in the mid-latitudes, forming into cutoff blocking highs, when surges of ions arrive from the CMEs and solar flares they produce a cascade of free electrons which sweep down on top of the existing Mobile Polar Highs, and show up as intense events due to the ion induced wind power added to the normal temperature gradient across fronts, by these huge surges in free electrons push into the mid-latitudes.
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi (graphs of electromagnetic activity of the interactions of the sunspots and CME’s upon the earths atmosphere) you can clearly see the shock impulses these past three days of CME arrival, at the same time the Drecheos were running across the charge boundary as the free electrons came cascading down from the North pole, as long as the graphs show rapid intense fluctuation the higher rate of precipitation results.
So the reason we are having summer droughts, and a lingering dry area in the Texas to South East of USA (for the past couple of years) is due to the decreasing strength of solar magnetic fields, resultant solar wind speed stability, and the probable weakening of the earths “permanent” fields. Thus lowering the ion content in the mid-latitudes allowing these events to occur. Drought until solar induced disruptions cause rapid discharges producing the Derechos along the periphery of the ion null, low aerosol content, zone of dry air in the blocking high pattern.
The maps shown on my site are for the normal average lunar declinational cyclic patterns and surges in ion inductions from solar activity show up as “out of the usual” or I totally miss their presence in my “forecasts for this cycle and I learn what is solar caused and what is not, how the interaction comes down. I learn more about how the electromagnetic interactions between the sun and the planets actually works quantitatively, as well as the length of timing durations to expect.
I built the web site as a learning tool to understand the entire system and its interactions. When I can derive algorithms to adjust the lunar declinational patterns by the expected solar activity, then I will be able to build an active weather forecasting method or model that works much better.
What you are seeing is monthly averages (I think) the way they dance between about four different patterns makes me wish that the data was sorted by lunar declinational periods of 27.3 days so the four fold patterns of the repeating jet stream location shifts could be better visualized. I would like to see the whole map remain in view instead of the zooming around to make political statements about weather events while loosing the overall view, by doing so they might have reached a bigger audience, but lost the objective transfer of usable total view of all data available. In the same vein I would have liked to have seen both the complete loop of the actuals as well as the anomalies.
(note to self) acquire the data and make the the movies you want to see, the (almost affordable) technology is available you know. Thanks for covering this story I’ll add this to my list of things to do when I win the lottery. Soon as I get the bugs worked out of the new map update on this site I will be working on making several more movies to show lunar declinational effects on the weather and climate.