Aerology Analog Forecasting Method
Bringing order out of chaotic systems requires a perspective bigger than the problem to be solved. The current weather / climate debate is a prime example of trying to find order in a chaotic system, however we need to look beyond our own planet if we are to fully realize the effects on our atmosphere. Below is a short research paper regarding long-range weather forecasting and the cyclic patterns that drive our weather.
At the end of the last Ice Age, the people who lived on the retreating edge of the permafrost noticed the surges in the weather. Some of them noticed that there were long-term patterns in the advance and retreat of the ice, and a gradual shift toward warmer climes, allowing them new and better lifestyles in the expanded habitable zones.
This pattern discovery gave them information that was helpful, encouraging them to look into the natural processes of every day life. Stonehenge was built, to find the connections between the interactions of the movement of the planets, sun and the moon. The builders of Stonehenge focused their attention on the Solar and Lunar declination and found several periods of the Earth and the Moon’s interactions with the rest of the solar system.
Current Forecasting Methods are Flawed
In the late 1950s research was conducted to investigate whether the light phases of the Moon had any predictable effects on the weather. The principal investigators did not find conclusive evidence that these effects could be used as a forecast tool, and funding for all related studies was dropped. Numerical models were then developed to extrapolate the current surface conditions into the future as a weather forecast method. Due to natural cyclic periodicities in the weather, not considered by these models, the current numerical modeling systems have a usable limit of about 7 to 10 days. As long as Meteorologists keep sorting data by man made systems of time keeping, and look for patterns of order from that basis, they will not find good answers. They need to look at natural systemic temporal rhythms to find the periods that are really driving the climate.
Our Atmosphere and its Natural Cyclic Patterns
Textbooks that teach about atmospheric circulation discuss the effects of ocean tides, and suggest that in an “unbounded ocean” you wouldn’t see the height changes that are due to the tidal bulge inertia running up the slope of the shore boundary.
Since the atmosphere is mostly unbounded, except by mountain ranges, you should mostly see the turbulence generated, and our atmosphere shows a lot of turbulence suggesting that tidal effects are in play.
With the advent of weather satellite photo coverage, I began to see the patterns in the atmospheric turbulence. I started to investigate the natural cyclic patterns in the solar system, to see if there might be something useful that has been over looked.
So, I started to look at the periods in the orbital dynamics of the Earth / Moon system and its common barycenter. I thought that maybe they were in harmonic oscillation, with the Moon being magnetically driven by the cyclic flux carried in the solar wind — shifting as the Sun rotated. The magnetic poles of the Sun are tilted ~12 degrees from the rotational axis of the sun, with a rotational period of about 27.32 days, the same period as the declinational movement of the moon. I found there was no known reason, why the Moon had a declinational component to its orbit. Upon further investigation I saw that the two periods were synchronized to with in a couple of minutes as far back as the Naval Office Ephemeris records go.
The long-term patterns found by Milankovitch and Theodor Landscheidt have their basis in natural periods of the movement of the Galaxy and the Solar System within it. The effects of the movement of the Sun about the Solar System barycenter is key to this process. The driving effects of the shorter periods of natural climate variability are being overlooked. Current meteorology is too focused on the surface of the Earth to get answers that work for the long term forecasting of weather and climate.
The solar wind inductive effects, drive the lunar declinational movement, which in turn drives the atmospheric declinational tides. The declinational movement of the Moon hangs at the culmination almost three days, as the polarity of the solar wind peaks and reverses. This produces the surges in the meridional flow, visible in the satellite photos as turbulence.
The Cyclic Patterns, How They’re Created, and Why They Affect the Weather
The Metonic cycle is a 19-year period when the lunar declination is at the culmination of movement on the same date as it was 19 years ago, as well as the same light phase. The Saros cycle is ~17 days longer than 18 years, and it is a repeating pattern of the position of the Earth / Moon and inner planets due to harmonic interactions, causing the Solar / lunar eclipses to repeat predictably at this period. The 18.6 year Mn cyclic patterns of the variation of the moon’s declinational movement result from the progression of the nodes that varies the declinational angle from the ~18.5 degrees minimum to ~28.5 maximum.
If we start with the studies of what works in climate forecasting — the Milankovitch cycles, we can expand on what has turned out to be true about solar cycles according to Theodor Landscheidt ( the only one to correctly forecast the long solar minimum we are passing through). The evidence points to the long term natural variability factors as being the effects of the rotation of the galaxy, and the swirl imparted to the local area of the spiral arm we seem to reside (Milankovitch), and further modulation of this movement, by the outer planets’ effects on the barycenter of the solar system, around which the Sun’s center of mass moves as it tries to stay magnetically and gravitationally centered.
Landscheidt found the driving forces of this planetary inertial damping of the system, and defined it to the point of predictability. The next step is to analyze the additional effects of the interactions of the Moon and inner planets, which have this rhythmic pattern to their orbital relationships, and their relationship to the weather patterns.
The 18.6 year Mn pattern of minimum-to-maximum extremes drive the decade long oscillations of the ocean basins, in combination with the timing of the Synod conjunctions of the outer planets, as a compounding signal, varying the resultant strengths and weakness of the combined cycles. This is more in tune with the Saros cycle than just the 18.6-year periodicity. The Lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere are the major mixing mechanism for the transportation of tropical ocean warmth and moisture over the landmasses to the mid-latitudes and Polar Regions, where it radiates into space, thereby regulating the Earth’s thermal budget.
The semi-boundary conditions caused by mountain ranges (the Rockies, Andes, Urals, Alps, Himalayas) results in topographical forcing of the turbulence of these tides into a four fold pattern of different types of Rossby waves, and resultant Jet stream patterns. This develops separate regimes of regional circulation in the lee of these obstructions.
The greater height of the Himalayas causes a large area extending across the Pacific Ocean to be sheltered from strong westerlies, except at high latitudes. The trade winds flow into these sheltered areas, due to forcing by the lunar declinational tides, the periods of oscillation are the products of the Saros Cycles with the impulses from the outer planets coming in and out of phase as they move through the ~179 year period discovered by Landscheidt.
To derive a method for producing a forecast out of all these compounded signals, It is important to synchronize by the relative strengths for determining the combined output. The annual signal is the strongest, then the 240-cycle pattern of lunar declinational movement next, on top of this the solar activity levels of addition or subtraction from the ambient ion drives, along with the following outer planet periodic impulses.
The homopolar electric field of the Earth, has an average strength of ~90 volts DC per meter as you go from the Equator toward the poles or up from the surface. These fields and voltages are influenced by changes in the interplanetary magnetic field strength. Strong fluctuations in the magnetic field result in small changes in the rotational speed of the Earth, hence the length of day (LOD) changes, due to the additional magnetic driving, or slowing of the angular momentum.
At the same time there is a shift in the standing charge gradient, from the poles (negative) to the equator (positive), in phase and proportional to the driving magnetic field strength changes. The rotation of the ~12 degree tilt of the Sun’s magnetic pole from the vertical axis of rotation generates the alternating polarity of the magnetic fields introduced into the solar wind. This drives the Moon / Earth into the declinational dance that creates the lunar declinational atmospheric tides in phase.
The center of mass (COM) of the Earth is leveraged by the barycenter of the Earth / Moon system, acting as the fulcrum, suggested by Archimedes, from which the Moon poises a counter-balancing movement for the COM of the Earth, moving it some 800 to 1200 kilometers, above and below the average ecliptic plane value. The actual value is determined by the included angle of the Moon determined by the 18.6 year Mn cycle of variation. At the same time by a slightly different period, the retrograde motion of the moon causes the more easily seen light phases, and which moves the COM of the Earth in and out from the Sun, the distance the barycenter is out from the COM of the Earth.
At the culmination of the lunar declinational movement, the polarity of the solar wind peaks and reverses, in phase with, and/or because of, the relative motion of the Earth’s COM to the average location of the ecliptic plane, causing a surge in the pole to pole differential in charge potential, and thereby affecting the ion flux in the Earth’s homopolar generated fields.
Because both the peak of the Meridional flow surge in the atmosphere and reversal of ion charge gradient globally occur synchronously, most severe weather occurs at these times. The mechanism is due to changes in the ion gradient across frontal boundaries, impeding precipitation rates as the homopolar generator effects are in charge mode, and increasing the precipitation rates as it goes into the discharge phase.
The interaction of the inner planets (of which the Earth is the only one with a large Moon and strong active magnetic fields), and the Moon in the pattern found in the Saros cycle timing, drives a resultant background pattern in the weather that is further compounded by the interactions of the Earth passing the four greatest outer planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) which also have strong magnetic fields and large amounts of magnetically permeable materials in their make-up.
By the basic electromagnetic rules of the relationships between magnetic fields, permeable materials, and shifts in induction due to changes in field strength, the magnetic fields generated by the solar wind should have a concentration of magnetic field lines. The strength should be relative to the magnetic conductance of the sum of magnetically permeable materials invested in the planetary bodies, irrespective of the strength of existing planetary permanent magnet fields.
Periods of increased magnetic conduction through the solar wind will appear to slow down particles and smooth up the flow, along the ecliptic plane, as most of the increase in magnetic flux will be in the greater density of the extended loops coming off the poles of the sun, and coupling back down through the poles of the affected planets.
In the early stages of the deployment of the Ulysses satellite I was able to find these patterns in the snatches of data via news service press releases, about the surges in magnetic fields seen in the Earth’s vicinity, which were seen elsewhere as well. The periods were also reveled as Ulysses went over the poles of the Sun, and special mention was made that the polar flux surges were much more intense (than expected), but still in phase with “the normal” cyclic patterns as seen from the Earth.
I did not get to influence the selection of “data stream sections of interest” studied and written about during the life span of the Ulysses project, and the data base was never available to the general public. The data are now archived away offline, hopefully still awaiting further study to prove/disprove the existence of concentrations of magnetic flux coupling through the planets as a source of inductive drivers of the weather, that could be further studied, and algorithms derived to adjust new improved forecast methods.
What I have come to surmise is that as the Earth has Synod (heliocentric) conjunctions with the outer planets, the Earth passes into a concentrated magnetic flux stream, (about 30 degrees wide) that is felt as increases in homopolar driving forcing, increases in global charge gradient, and the LOD of the Earth to decrease to the point of most intense coupling, then increase back to the ambient levels for the normal annual pattern. The amount of this effect is proportional to the strength of the total magnetic flux coupled through the Earth, then on through the outer planet(s) in question.
Magnet field strength of coupling is relative to the volume of total magnetically permeable material involved. The addition of another planetary body in the conduction pathway causes an increase above what the two bodies would conduct separately. When more than two planets are involved, the coupling becomes greater as a result of the composite of the total conductance increases, each body tends to try to focus the ion stream following the magnetic flux concentration to center on itself. This sometimes produces convoluted shifts in field strength that are responsible for power grid outages, when induction frequencies reach the band pass of power transformers, and are out of phase with the 50/60 Hz.
As the earth passes any of the outer planets heliocentricly, the increase in magnetic flux felt by the Earth due to the outer planet(s) increases the charge gradient from poles to equator, and adds to the displacement volume of air mass from equator to mid-latitudes and the total ion charge gradient across frontal boundaries, and the moisture content in the air masses to carry positive ions, which requires molecules missing valance electrons.
These additional surges of moisture laden positively ionized air combine with the normal patterns of declinational atmospheric tidal movement, to add strength to them when in phase, and decrease them when out of phase. This shift in balance can be the determining factor, for hurricanes to fizzle, or to rapidly gain strength as they develop. Consideration of these forces will add much to the knowledge of their behavior, and hence the predictability of tropical storms in both hemispheres.
What I have found in tornado production times, rates, and patterns in the coming and going of the 18.6 year Mn pattern of lunar declinational tidal interactions, carries over into driving the patterns of global decade long oscillations across ocean basin patterns of production, as a composite of the combined effects of the Saros cycle period of inner planet effects and the combining of the ~172 year repeating patterns of outer planet influences on the sun and inner solar system. This greater compounded signal is what makes weather and climate appear chaotic.
The further investigation of the compounding cycles of the electromagnetic entanglements, between the planets playing in the solar wind, show up in the ionosphere, and resultantly being felt at the surface, are the drivers of “Natural Patterns of Variability” in the long term global circulation patterns, that are responsible for driving the climate.
The Saros cycle is better at predicting tornado production patterns, as the inner planets are considered in as well, where the 18.6 year Mn period just shows clumps and more of a homogeneous blending of sizes of outbreaks around the same time periods of the 27 day declination cycle, the 6558 days sorting periods (by synchronizing the 109.3 day period of four-fold Rossby wave repeating pattern), yield a better defined systemic clumping of surges of production.
My Research and Process Refinement
By 1990, I was plotting local weather data for the surrounding counties in North Central Kansas, and it seemed to work better than the NWS forecasts, just by sorting weather data by going back 2 Metonic cycles (38 years) to the same date, then pulling data from either side by the Saros cycle periodicities. By the time I acclimated a couple years of forecast results, I saw that it was doing a better job forecasting for the previous year than the supposed current.
I had the chance to go to Boston for a week, I tried to talk to some people at M.I.T., and they referred me to the reference library, where they had synoptic maps back to 1800’s, and file drawers full of high resolution satellite photos. I got busy pulling out daily prints of the 1800 IR photos, laid them out side by side, to see what the 27.32 day pattern looked like from space.
I laid out three cycles of about 27 days long. The second set of 27 did not look much like the 1st and 3rd set, so I got out some more, ended up with four sets of 27, 27, 28, 27 days, still the 1st and 3rd looked similar, but so did the 2nd and 4th to each other, but not so much to the 1st and 3rd. Pulled out four more sets of 27, laid them in a second row beneath the first. I was able to see a four-fold pattern of Rossby waves that repeated as sets of fours.
By this time Peter Stone had gotten a free moment, that I could talk to him about why I was there, and I took a set of four photos (all from the days of Maximum North lunar declination culmination) to his office and laid them out so he could see them, but not the date stamps at the tops, asked him how long apart they were taken, and he guessed that they had to be only hours apart because they were so similar. When shown the dates, and that they were almost a month apart, he got interested enough that my 10 minute visit stretched into 35 minutes, before he had to catch his flight, to be the Keynote speaker at the Madrid International Conference.
I spent more time over the next two days, looking through the photos and synoptic maps, and found that the four cycle repeating pattern, went unbroken as far back as they had data (late1800’s). When I got home, I bought some map making software, and the “TD 3200 Coop Extension Summary of the day” CD data set, and I started to make maps from the national data set, this time based on a pattern of 240 declinational cycles (6558 days) which is just one 27.32 day period short of the Saros cycle, referenced from the date, centered on 13,550 days before the present date, and 6558 days either side of that reference.
The composite maps that this sorting method of data generates, is much better than the other two patterns I have tried before. With the composite of the three past cycles, looking as good as the current radar, most of the time. My daughter April, was working as a front end architect for an interactive web marketing firm, she suggested that maybe the programmer could help me with a program, to automate the map making process, and she could put this site back online.
The automated process of pulling up, and combining past cycles of daily data to form the maps, now takes a couple weeks to produce a year long forecast. The automation also eliminated all of the uncertainty in the cut, paste, drag, and drop method of compiling the data by hand into daily sets of data. The current (6 years) of maps on this site were compiled and generated in August through December of 2007, so by now have a lead time of at least two years, although the data in any one map is at least 19 years older than the forecast date.
I had a problem with the temperatures being seasonally shifted back, 11 days per each cycle, so the average temperatures generated were off about a month from seasonal. I had the programmer make a temporary repair by pulling up an additional data cycle date from 54 days later, which I added into the data averaging steps, using these three more sets of data, left the result with in 7 to 10 days of seasonally centered, by combining the 1st set with the 3rd set, and the 2nd set with 4th set every cycle for temperatures, which brings them into much better value agreement, but washes out the spots of intense cold East and West of the Great Lakes by combining them.
The cyclic patterns really needs to be set up as a set of gridded anomalies for each of the stations from past records (I would recommend 60 years minimum time span for the average) by forecast seasonally appropriate date, to seasonally readjust the composite three dates of data from the single right cycle. This would better show the locations of the surges in cold temperatures, as an improvement over what I have now on my site.
There is only so much I can get done with a passive sorting program, I would like to assist any one who would be able / willing to let me help them tweak this process, and put in adjustments for differences in solar cycle activity levels, as well as feed backs for adjustments due to changes in the more recently occurring, but just past 54 day or 109 day cycles.
With an active program for compiling the effects and using algorithms, the trends seen in the whole (18.6 year long term cycle) of normals forecast from this method, can be used to separate out the 18.6 cyclic influence on the climate drivers to get a better handle on the solar influence and the interactions of the outer planets on the production of tornadoes, generation and intensification in the global production of cyclones, hurricanes, giving a method to forecast the timing and expected location of tropical storms, not just the number expected each year.
I have also been downloading these animated maps –
By watching the effects of the four-fold pattern of Rossby wave movement in the Pacific, looking at the months that are 18 years and 19 years apart I hope to get a better handle on how the Himalayas affect the SOI and trade wind patterns. I will be writing more about that as I get it figured out better. The obstruction of the Himalayas sets up the Pacific basin for the whole trade winds and PDO cycle of response of the atmosphere, on the lee side of them.
I would like to see these, and other animated maps set up by periods of the 27.32 patterns, and if run simultaneously as a set of parallel screen tiles could be viewed as the repeating cycles, to forecast long-term effects of global circulation in areas with little surface data availability. As well as a potentially great educational tool to how these patterns affect our atmosphere and how they can be predicted.
If you would like to discuss my past or current research please feel free to contact me.