RICKIES rapid climate change events

[Does not go into the interplanetary solar wind induction and barycenter movements of the sun , effecting the mechanism of actions possible but lays bare the trends that will be found with the introspection of the electromagnetic, gravitational, and tidal forces among and between the solar system bodies as they interact to remain in the center of the heliopause, suspended on the furthest outlying closed loops of the solar wind magnetic fields, with a foam of turbulent small particles.]
William Astley says:

Implications and Consequence of Flat Temperatures for 16 plus years and No Tropical Troposphere Hot Spot

The fact that there has been no planetary warming for 16 plus years and the fact that atmospheric temperatures have not increased at roughly 10 km above the surface, in the tropics as the CO2 warming theory predicts when CO2 increased, disproves the extreme AWG paradigm. A lack of warming can be explained away, in the short term, with heating hiding in the ocean or some unexplained mechanism that is cooling the planet. Hansen’s particulate reflection hypothesis fails to explain the lack of warming, as particulates do not move from hemisphere to hemisphere unlike atmospheric gases such as CO2 which equalize in about a year between hemispheres. The particulates are emitted in the Northern Hemisphere which is where the warming has occurred, particularly at high Northern Latitudes. The lack of warming has occurred in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere. (i.e. The lack of warming mechanism must explain the fact that observed warming has not been global.) There is no explanation for the fact that there is not observed warming of tropical troposphere (10 km) tropical troposphere hot spot. (The lack of a tropical troposphere hot spot is just ignored.)

Unequivocal planetary cooling, as opposed to a lack of warming is a game changer. The public will require, will demand a definite, logical, physical explanation for global cooling. There is now observation evidence of the start of a mechanism change which will lead to significant planetary cooling. (If and when there is unequivocal evidence of cooling, I can provide an explanation of how the sun is causing the cooling and what to expect if a solar forced Heinrich event is unfolding.) (more…)

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Processes,Supporting Research — by Richard Holle @ 8:18 am on March 29, 2013

Derecho storm seen from space


The powerful windstorms that swept across the US last week was captured by several different satellites. This type of storm, called a derecho, moved from Illinois to the Mid-Atlantic states on June 29, and the movie from NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite shows the storms’ sudden expansion and speed. The storms left a more than 1,000-km (700-mile) trail of destruction across the Midwest and mid-Atlantic, cutting power to millions and killing thirteen people.

A derecho (pronounced “deh-REY-cho”) is not your average, ordinary local summer thunderstorm. These are widespread, long-lived but rare wind storms that are usually associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Damage from a derecho is usually in one direction along a relatively straight track. By definition an event is classified a derecho if the wind damage swath extends more than 400 km (240 miles) and includes wind gusts of at least 93 km/h (58 mph) or greater along most of its length.

These storms occur in the United States during the late spring and summer, with more than three quarters occurring between April and August.

The movie begins on June 28 at 15:15 UTC (11:15 a.m. EDT) and ends on June 30, 2012 at 16:01 UTC (12:01 p.m. EDT). In the animation, the derecho’s clouds appear as a line in the upper Midwest on June 29 at 14:32. By 16:02 UTC, they appear as a rounded area south of Lake Michigan. By 21:32, the area of the derecho’s clouds were near Lake Erie and over Ohio expanding as the system track southeast. By 06:30 UTC, the size appears to have almost doubled as the derecho moves over West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia. At 02:32 UTC on June 30 (10:32 p.m. EDT), the Derecho was over the mid-Atlantic bringing a 160 km (100 mile) line of severe storms and wind gusts as high as 144 km/h (90 mph) to the region.

“It is interesting how the process is a self-sustaining process that is fed by a combination of atmospheric factors that all have to be in place at the same time,” said Joe Witte, a meteorologist in Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, Va. and a consultant to NASA. “That is why they are relatively rare: not all the elements line up that often.”

[Its hard not to see the ionic surge of strength added to the normal precipitation front that gives this critter its forward speed and wind strength]

Richard Holle says:
July 3, 2012 at 5:02 pm

Part of the reason for the bow front storms (Derechos) is due to solar wind inductions into the earths magnetic field, and corresponding ion charge potentials between the poles and the equator due to homopolar generator effects. The more energetic the interactions between the suns production in spots and CMEs, (that put out short term surges in magnetic and ion flux,) the more is the effected storm strength and production. When the sun is active the shifts in polarity of the solar wind keep the storms active and spread out, when the magnetic field strength of the earth weakens and becomes stable for periods of time longer than about two weeks, then the polar to equatorial air mass interaction slows down giving rise to larger mid-latitude bands of clean dry air with low ion count. Blocking highs that occur in these areas produce droughts due to there is little precipitable water vapor, and no flux of ions into or out of the area to cause rainfall.
These spots develop low concentrations of ions due to the neutralizing effects of passing fronts, Further poleward you will find Negative ions abound (accounting for the acidic Ph of rain), and closer to the equator positive ions driven off of the ocean surface by wave action nebulization.

When the magnetic fields of the sun and the earth weaken the areas of neutral charged air masses increase in the mid-latitudes, forming into cutoff blocking highs, when surges of ions arrive from the CMEs and solar flares they produce a cascade of free electrons which sweep down on top of the existing Mobile Polar Highs, and show up as intense events due to the ion induced wind power added to the normal temperature gradient across fronts, by these huge surges in free electrons push into the mid-latitudes.
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi (graphs of electromagnetic activity of the interactions of the sunspots and CME’s upon the earths atmosphere) you can clearly see the shock impulses these past three days of CME arrival, at the same time the Drecheos were running across the charge boundary as the free electrons came cascading down from the North pole, as long as the graphs show rapid intense fluctuation the higher rate of precipitation results.

So the reason we are having summer droughts, and a lingering dry area in the Texas to South East of USA (for the past couple of years) is due to the decreasing strength of solar magnetic fields, resultant solar wind speed stability, and the probable weakening of the earths “permanent” fields. Thus lowering the ion content in the mid-latitudes allowing these events to occur. Drought until solar induced disruptions cause rapid discharges producing the Derechos along the periphery of the ion null, low aerosol content, zone of dry air in the blocking high pattern.

The maps shown on my site are for the normal average lunar declinational cyclic patterns and surges in ion inductions from solar activity show up as “out of the usual” or I totally miss their presence in my “forecasts for this cycle and I learn what is solar caused and what is not, how the interaction comes down. I learn more about how the electromagnetic interactions between the sun and the planets actually works quantitatively, as well as the length of timing durations to expect.
I built the web site as a learning tool to understand the entire system and its interactions. When I can derive algorithms to adjust the lunar declinational patterns by the expected solar activity, then I will be able to build an active weather forecasting method or model that works much better.

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Natural Processes,Severe Weather — by Richard Holle @ 3:33 am on July 7, 2012

Galactic perspective

Richard Hollesays:

Those who study climate with out looking at anything above 100 Km, are all about temps, pressures, and lately radiative balance. Those with a focus on the solar activity out to the orbit of the earth are into internal dynamo theory. Those with a focus on the interaction of the solar system with an eye to the focus on SSB with the planets driving the solar cycles are getting closer.

The real prospective that will find answers will be called Astrology, or electric sun, not because they are valid but because if one considers the modulation of the galactic magnetic fields by the local effects of the spiral arms and the density/compression waves they are causing the movement of the spiral arm evolution to progress, as a background through which the solar system is traveling, they will be shoved into those categories.

Once a viewpoint is taken in the long term context of the magnetic field interactions of the heliopause as it moves through the changing terrain of the spiral arms it encounters, at the same timing as we experience interglacial periods, then a proper perspective can be taken on what drives both climate and  the solar dynamics, as well as the movement of the planets and sun responding to changes in magnetic flux into and through the heliosphere. This can be extrapolated from the effects seen on smaller scales by the magnetospheres of the planets IMHO. (more…)

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Processes — by Richard Holle @ 6:15 am on April 18, 2012

Austrailan lunar tidal study

Paul Vaughan says:

Just learned of this brand new release:

Wilson, I.R.G. (2012). Lunar tides and the long-term variation of the peak latitude anomaly of the summer sub-tropical high pressure ridge over Eastern Australia. The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 6, 49-60.

Will read when time permits.

[I have read and saved it is very informative but does not investigate declinational components driving the meridional flow surges in the atmosphere, just pressure waves of the interactions of the solar  pressure and the “lunar tidal lifting” timing effects]

Filed under: In other online forums,Long-term Lunar Effects,Natural Processes,Supporting Research — by Richard Holle @ 8:07 am on March 2, 2012

Robert Brown opinion

[Reality is the thing you perceive, that conforms to known ways to test if it is real, or in Robert Brown’s learned and much better  words]

For the general public that does not have an objective scientific bend, how do you tell virtual reality from the real thing?

That’s a serious problem, actually. Hell, I have an objective scientific bend and I have plenty of trouble with it.

Ultimately, the stock answer is: We should believe the most what we can doubt the least, when we try to doubt very hard, using a mix of experience and consistent reason based on a network of experience-supported best (so far) beliefs.

That’s not very hopeful, but it is accurate. We believe Classical Non-Relativistic Mechanics after Newton invents it, not because it is true but because it works fairly consistently to describe Kepler’s purely observational laws, and (as it is tested) works damn well to describe a lot of quotidian experience as well on a scale less grand than planetary orbits. We encounter trouble with classical mechanics a few hundred years later when it fails to consistently describe blackbody radiation, the photoelectric effect (the one thing Einstein actually got the Nobel Prize for), the spectra of atoms, given Maxwell’s enormously successful addition to the equations of electricity and magnetism and the realization that light is an electromagnetic wave. (more…)

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Processes,Supporting Research — by Richard Holle @ 8:29 pm on March 1, 2012