Pamela,

I’m not ignoring you. I’m wrestling with the concept of how we would “prove” (or falsify) that the decadal or bidecadal cycles in global temperature are “caused” by ocean current cycles which are themselves likely driven by the same exogenous sources we’re attributing the temperature cycles to. For example, in the post I did on the PDO, I recall both a bidecadal and even a pentadecadal cycle in the PDO and NPI. Does that mean these are “causing” the cycles we’re seeing in global temperature? Or is it not more likely that these are just different manifestations of a common external (or exogenous) driver (or drivers)?

Or, suppose we could definitely link the decadal signal in global temperature trends to ENSO. So? What is driving ENSO? I’m sure we can cross-correlate cyclical variation global temperature with a variety of different climate variables. But you understand as well as I do that this doesn’t “prove” causation. It merely establishes association, possibly driven by common forces.

What are those common forces? Besides lunar and solar, what other candidates are there for the ultimate cause?

[My answer would be the lunar declinational tides being synchronized to the rotation of the magnetic poles of the sun.]

Here are some notes about the lunar nodal cycle. I’ve extracted them from my paper, “The Sun’s role in regulating the Earth’s climate” published recently in the Journal of Energy and Environment paper (VOLUME 20 No. 1 2009).
By way of introduction, here is the Abstract of my paper:
This paper introduces this thesis:
The Sun-Earth system is electromagnetically, magneto-hydrodynamically and gravitationally coupled, dominated by significant non-linear, non-stationary interactions, which vary over time and throughout the three-dimensional structure of the Earth, its atmosphere and oceans. The essential elements of the Sun-Earth system are the solar dynamo, the heliosphere, the lunisolar tides, the Earth’s inner and outer cores, mantle, crust, magnetosphere, oceans and atmosphere. The Sun-Earth system is non-ergodic (i.e. characterised by continuous change, complexity, disorder, improbability, spontaneity, connectivity and the unexpected). Climate dynamics, therefore, are non-ergodic, with highly variable climatological features at any one time.
A theoretical framework for considering the role of the Sun in relation to the Earth’s climate dynamics is outlined and ways in which the Sun affects climate reviewed. The forcing sources (independent variables) that influence climate processes (dependent variables) are analysed. This theoretical framework shows clearly the interaction effects between and amongst the two classes of variables. These seem to have the greatest effect on climate dynamics.
Climate processes are interconnected and oscillating, yielding variable periodicities. Solar processes, especially when interacting, amplify or dampen these periodicities producing distinctive climatic cycles. As solar and climate processes are non-linear, non-stationary and non-ergodic, appropriate analytic methodologies are necessary to reveal satisfactorily solar/climate relationships.
In this context, the Lunar Nodal Cycle is but one of the solar variables (arising from the Sun’s gravitational field) that has to be understood in order to understand fully the many ways by which the Sun regulates the climate of the Earth.
The lunar nodal cycle and climate.
The 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle (LNC) tidal periodicity has a pervasive role in climate change. It is the period of a full rotation of the Moon’s orbital plane around the ecliptic, the geometric plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. It is the clearest tidal signal in the thousands of time series analysed. (more…)

Credit: Climatology animations have been assembled using JRA-25 Atlas [ http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/jra/atlas/eng/atlas-tope.htm ] images. JRA-25 long-term reanalysis is a collaboration of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) & Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).

[many more links to animations of the atmospheric effects due to solar declinational /seasonal movements follow below, showing the solar effects I/you should include into my ideas] (more…)

Here’s some background on Earth’s Thermohaline Circulation;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/currents/global/CSIRO_Conveyor_Oceans_M.wmv

NASA’s Ocean Motion page offers some good insights;
http://oceanmotion.org/html/impact/conveyor.htm

as does this page;
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Water/deep_ocean.html

[Lunar tidal effects mentioned toward the bottom of this lengthy informational comment, good resource as usual from just the facts]

(more…)

DocMartyn says:
August 13, 2011 at 2:10 pm

In all seriousness I wish to know why the bottoms of the oceans are much colder than the surface.
I know the surface gets sunlight during the day and radiates heat at night.
What I don’t understand is why radiant heat is not trapped at the bottom.
Why is IR radiation from the surface not been trapped at the bottom of the ocean?
——————–Reply;
when the polar ice at either pole freezes in its respective winter, it squeezes out most of the salt that accumulates into the close to 2c sea water that then becomes denser than the warmer or fresher water, due to both the fact that water gets densest at around 4 to 2 degrees C and the more salt is added to the solution. This colder denser salter water drops to the bottom of the oceans and spreads out covering the worlds ocean floors, Most of the heat loss from the poles is moved this way, when the heat loss is fast enough then sea ice forms and as it thickens it starts to insulate the 4 to 6 degree C sea water, as it spreads it regulates the limit of heat that can escape into space. (more…)