Derecho storm seen from space

http://www.universetoday.com/96157/powerful-derecho-storms-as-seen-from-space/

The powerful windstorms that swept across the US last week was captured by several different satellites. This type of storm, called a derecho, moved from Illinois to the Mid-Atlantic states on June 29, and the movie from NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite shows the storms’ sudden expansion and speed. The storms left a more than 1,000-km (700-mile) trail of destruction across the Midwest and mid-Atlantic, cutting power to millions and killing thirteen people.

A derecho (pronounced “deh-REY-cho”) is not your average, ordinary local summer thunderstorm. These are widespread, long-lived but rare wind storms that are usually associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Damage from a derecho is usually in one direction along a relatively straight track. By definition an event is classified a derecho if the wind damage swath extends more than 400 km (240 miles) and includes wind gusts of at least 93 km/h (58 mph) or greater along most of its length.

These storms occur in the United States during the late spring and summer, with more than three quarters occurring between April and August.

The movie begins on June 28 at 15:15 UTC (11:15 a.m. EDT) and ends on June 30, 2012 at 16:01 UTC (12:01 p.m. EDT). In the animation, the derecho’s clouds appear as a line in the upper Midwest on June 29 at 14:32. By 16:02 UTC, they appear as a rounded area south of Lake Michigan. By 21:32, the area of the derecho’s clouds were near Lake Erie and over Ohio expanding as the system track southeast. By 06:30 UTC, the size appears to have almost doubled as the derecho moves over West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia. At 02:32 UTC on June 30 (10:32 p.m. EDT), the Derecho was over the mid-Atlantic bringing a 160 km (100 mile) line of severe storms and wind gusts as high as 144 km/h (90 mph) to the region.

“It is interesting how the process is a self-sustaining process that is fed by a combination of atmospheric factors that all have to be in place at the same time,” said Joe Witte, a meteorologist in Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, Va. and a consultant to NASA. “That is why they are relatively rare: not all the elements line up that often.”

[Its hard not to see the ionic surge of strength added to the normal precipitation front that gives this critter its forward speed and wind strength]

Richard Holle says:
July 3, 2012 at 5:02 pm

Part of the reason for the bow front storms (Derechos) is due to solar wind inductions into the earths magnetic field, and corresponding ion charge potentials between the poles and the equator due to homopolar generator effects. The more energetic the interactions between the suns production in spots and CMEs, (that put out short term surges in magnetic and ion flux,) the more is the effected storm strength and production. When the sun is active the shifts in polarity of the solar wind keep the storms active and spread out, when the magnetic field strength of the earth weakens and becomes stable for periods of time longer than about two weeks, then the polar to equatorial air mass interaction slows down giving rise to larger mid-latitude bands of clean dry air with low ion count. Blocking highs that occur in these areas produce droughts due to there is little precipitable water vapor, and no flux of ions into or out of the area to cause rainfall.
These spots develop low concentrations of ions due to the neutralizing effects of passing fronts, Further poleward you will find Negative ions abound (accounting for the acidic Ph of rain), and closer to the equator positive ions driven off of the ocean surface by wave action nebulization.

When the magnetic fields of the sun and the earth weaken the areas of neutral charged air masses increase in the mid-latitudes, forming into cutoff blocking highs, when surges of ions arrive from the CMEs and solar flares they produce a cascade of free electrons which sweep down on top of the existing Mobile Polar Highs, and show up as intense events due to the ion induced wind power added to the normal temperature gradient across fronts, by these huge surges in free electrons push into the mid-latitudes.
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi (graphs of electromagnetic activity of the interactions of the sunspots and CME’s upon the earths atmosphere) you can clearly see the shock impulses these past three days of CME arrival, at the same time the Drecheos were running across the charge boundary as the free electrons came cascading down from the North pole, as long as the graphs show rapid intense fluctuation the higher rate of precipitation results.

So the reason we are having summer droughts, and a lingering dry area in the Texas to South East of USA (for the past couple of years) is due to the decreasing strength of solar magnetic fields, resultant solar wind speed stability, and the probable weakening of the earths “permanent” fields. Thus lowering the ion content in the mid-latitudes allowing these events to occur. Drought until solar induced disruptions cause rapid discharges producing the Derechos along the periphery of the ion null, low aerosol content, zone of dry air in the blocking high pattern.

The maps shown on my site are for the normal average lunar declinational cyclic patterns and surges in ion inductions from solar activity show up as “out of the usual” or I totally miss their presence in my “forecasts for this cycle and I learn what is solar caused and what is not, how the interaction comes down. I learn more about how the electromagnetic interactions between the sun and the planets actually works quantitatively, as well as the length of timing durations to expect.
I built the web site as a learning tool to understand the entire system and its interactions. When I can derive algorithms to adjust the lunar declinational patterns by the expected solar activity, then I will be able to build an active weather forecasting method or model that works much better.

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Natural Processes,Severe Weather — by Richard Holle @ 3:33 am on July 7, 2012

Lunar earth tides and earthquakes

SUN, MOON AND EARTHQUAKES
V. G. Kolvankar
Abstract

During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun’s position in terms of universal time (GMT) shows links to the earthquake-lunar distance together with Sun-Earth-Moon angle. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that nearly 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun’s position and the earthquake-moon distance together with the Sun-Earth-Moon angle. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the sum of the earthquake-moon distance and the Sun-Earth-Moon angle changes through 360 0 , and plotting these two variables for different earthquakes reveals a simple 45 0 straight-line relationship between them.

New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter
Issue: 60 – September 2011 – Page:50
http://www.ncgt.org/newsletter.php

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Natural Processes — by Richard Holle @ 10:58 pm on October 19, 2011

Tallbloke and boot straping

[As the waters clear in the ongoing discussion, the inner workings of peer review processes comes out. I would read the whole rest of the thread, from this point on as it seems to be almost all meat, and stuffing, with little distraction.]

tallbloke says:

Willis Eschenbach says:
July 27, 2011 at 2:12 am
There is a cycle which is somewheres around sixty years in the temperature data. There is also a cycle which is somewheres around sixty years in the solar data.
OK … I guess I still don’t get it. Why is that important, particularly since the ~ 60 year cycle in temperature is large and visible in the record, while the ~ 60 year cycle in the barycentric velocity is small and not visible in the record.
Geoff, what makes you think that the cycles are anything other than a coincidence, particularly when one is tiny and the other is large?

Hi Willis, I don’t presume to reply either for Geoff or Nicola, because my own hypothesis differs from theirs in important respects, (though there is a lot of crossover), and they are here to reply for themselves anyway and Nicola has kind of answered your point in his response to Leif above. I just want to butt in to offer something else which might help with the issue quoted above.

The same solar system oscillations which involve the timing of planetary orbits and solar activity also (IMO) lie behind the multidecadal changes in Earth’s length of day, and these are in phase with the oceanic oscillations seen in the SST records, PDO, AMO etc. Maybe the cause is the slowing down or speeding up of the Earth causes water to pile up against the sides of continents, producing cold upwelling. probably it’s more complex than that. (more…)

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Supporting Research — by Richard Holle @ 3:50 am on July 27, 2011

Tornado Forecast verification?

Spring tornado outbreak forecast posted on the 2nd, below the verification updates,

Cost to public a couple clicks of the mouse,
to compare to my sites maps so far;

2-24=27 tornado reports  110224_rpts.html

2-25=1 tornado report  110225_rpts.html

2-27=18 tornado reports 110227_rpts.html

2-28=18 tornado reports 110228_rpts.html

3-05=10 tornado reports  110305_rpts.html

3-06=3 tornado reports 110306_rpts.html

3-08=19 tornado reports   110308_rpts.html

3-09=25 tornado reports  110309_rpts.html

3-10=4 tornado reports   110310_rpts.html

3-14=2 tornado reports   110314_rpts.html

3-18=1 tornado report   110318_rpts.html

3-19=1 tornado report   110319_rpts.html

3-21=1 tornado report   110321_rpts.html

3-22=19 tornado reports   110322_rpts.html

3-23=8 tornado reports  110323_rpts.html

3-26=8 tornado reports  110326_rpts.html

3-29=5 tornado reports  110329_rpts.html

3-30=1 tornado reports  110330_rpts.html

3-31=6 tornado reports  110331_rpts.html

4-4=67 tornado reports  110404_rpts.html

4-7=1 tornado report   110407_rpts.html

4-8=3 tornado reports  110408_rpts.html

4-9=32 tornado reports  110409_rpts.html

4-10=24 tornado reports  110410_rpts.html

4-13=1 tornado report  110413_rpts.html

4-14=27 tornado reports  110414_rpts.html

4-15=120 tornado reports   110415_rpts.html

4-16=120 tornado reports   110416_rpts.html
Richard Holle says:
March 2, 2011 at 12:32 pm
Tornado production is a result of Lunar declinational tides pulling air masses from more equatorial areas into the mid-latitudes, so the peak production times when they form can be predicted as the periods from Maximum North culmination to three days after, a couple of days when the moon crosses the equator headed North, and as the moon reaches maximum South declination and several days after.
These effects are due to the production of the primary and secondary tidal bulges in the atmosphere, that arrive at the same time as the ion content of the air masses reaches a local maximum. Between the induced charge differential between the +ion concentrations riding on the more equatorial sourced air mass, established ahead of the dry line front of -ion concentrated more polar air mass, that sweeps in from the West, forcing the precipitation into the rapidly moving narrow band of severe weather from which the tornadoes form on the trailing edges.
The periods when these effects will be most likely to occur this spring,
2-25/28 for three days, which we just had, around max South.
3-5/7 slight chance of small outbreak
3-12/17 starting in Arkansas through Kentucky and the Ohio river valley
3-25/30 Starting Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas through Ohio river valley the beginning of a long period of very wet activity most of April.
4-5/8 start up of activity
with the re-enactment of the 1974 outbreak most possible in the period
4-8/13 Maps of the expected precipitation can be found on my site, bearing in mind that the tornado and severe activity usually forms in the fast moving part of the frontal boundary and not usually in the areas of heaviest total daily precipitation.
On the maps show on my site you can expect to see the tornado development in the areas with the “netted” looking precipitation patterns due to the usual nature of the part of the front where they occur.
1974 is one of the analog years for my forecast method, which is why I mention we may see a replay of that out break.

[for what its worth NOAA changed the way it reports # of storm reports]

On 31/03/2011, at 5:13, David Imy <David.Imy@noaa.gov> wrote:

Ed,

This is very important and may through a kink in your hail study.  We changed the way we report severe events and starting on March 8, 2011, we no longer use the proximity space/time rule to de-duplicate events and minimal filtering is now applied to the decoded reports. This means if a duplicate report is sent, it will be encoded twice on the storm reports page and count as two events (when in reality it is only 1). Also, prior to March 8th, if the same hail or wind event occurred  with 10 miles or within 15 minutes of the same event, it was not logged onto the Storm Reports page (assumed to be the same storm report). These two factors will result in many more wind and hail reports than in the past (neither correct or incorrect), though the user has to dig more through the actual reports, as opposed to using the actual numbers. This is not a conspiracy against your project, but a request from many of our users that has been in the works for some time.  Anyway, I wanted you to be aware.

David

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Natural Processes,Tornadoes — by Richard Holle @ 8:53 pm on April 16, 2011

Australian interest in global ocean tidal movements and flood patterns

Southern Oracle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/31/11
Loc: Southern Victoria

I’ve been doing this for close to five years now . However only reading and not collating . As for Dams 18mths ago , I started clearing trees in a central Victorian Dam for the filling event that eventually happened in the second half of last year . Pulling close to a 1,000 trees (10 -60 cm circumference ) roots and all out so that the our section of the lake wouldn’t be unuseable when it flooded . I had a hard time convinceing people to help . And its the same type of people all wrapped up in AGW and so forth that pushed for Desalination and keeping the precious water in the catchments at a maximum that prevented Brisbane from Mitigating its supplies Earlier . Because we would ” Never see decent rains again “.
Funnily enough a so called Expert authority didn’t have the balls to call the drought over when Ocean Indices were already well and truly on their way to deliver rains Months in advance .
I know where i think money should be spent for Weather related grants . (more…)
Filed under: In other online forums,Long-term Lunar Effects,Natural Disasters,Uncategorized — by Richard Holle @ 6:12 am on March 29, 2011