Temperature scale update on maps

When I added Canada and Australia, I dropped the local Contiguous USA local maps that were searchable by zip code, because the Canadian and Australian zip code differences would not let the program run for the whole package. I have now returned the local zip code searchable forecasts for just the contiguous US and will not be having the searchable local maps feature for the Canadian and Australian coverage areas.

I have added more delineations to the temp color scale, and moved it to the left side as requested by some users of my maps, compressed the top to allow the whole map to be viewed on smaller screens and/or with out so much scrolling when changing dates, countries, or parameters. The input data remains unchanged, as do the csv files drawn from the raw data to create these maps. Only the color scaling was changed, from the standard that the NWS was using, to a more natural color scheme based on vegetation reactions to temperatures, for the easier use by farmers. Clip of the new scale below.

New

From 0C to 5C when roots grow, but no grass top growth occurs the white (probable frost band) to yellow bands, from grass emergence to cooler season pea and legume sprouting the further blending from light blue to light green, and soil planting temps for most agricultural field crops in the light green to darker shades around 20C, then the optimal temps for photosynthesis for mature plants and most field crops is centered on a forest green at ~72 degrees F.

From about 78 degrees F to 82 degrees F a yellow band to show slight stress might be present in low humidity conditions, fading to browns from 83 to 92 degrees F reflecting probable stress in more humid conditions, and definite slowed growth in dry conditions, then from human body temperature and up, in the red shades that the NWS used for every thing above a comfortable 75-80 degrees F to be really scarey for the AGW meme.

I am hoping that this finer graduation of temp color scales will end most of the confusion that resulted in trying to  read the massive range of the original yellow through orange, red to pink that covered an 80 degree F range or a 40 degree C range that tricked the eye into seeing it as almost all the same.

At 9:00 pm Phoenix time yesterday (2-17-2013) we started the re-upload of the  maps with the new temperature color scale and the local area maps will be once again available, in 24 hours the server has regenerated 4 months of the maps from June 1,2012 through end of September 2012. We originally re-did the month of May 2012 with out converting the North American maps so we could see the difference, I chose to leave them that way so you could see the difference for your self. If you open one of the maps say May 15th http://www.aerology.com/?location=Usa&mapType=Tmax&date=5%2F15%2F2012 and flick between the North American and either the Canadian or USA maps you can easily see the difference.

It should take another ~10 days for the server to create all of the needed maps to cover all of 2013, 2014, and 2015, if all goes well and there are no unexpected interruptions, (took a 36 hour hiatus to make the remaining csv files that will allow  us to continue to load maps until the 19 year limit of the process from the most recent data we have is reached, 2001 +19 = late December of 2020).  We will be updating (the on site) color scale presentation as soon as the map re-production is up to ~ the current date, along with the additional graphic additions and changes to compress the top, put the temp scale on the left and make it work better for you as requested.

For farmers and the associated markets that depend on their production to survive, shifting from the High temps and the Precipitation patterns for each day as you go through the growing seasons of your choice should alert you to times when the heat and dryness combine to create crop yield decreases, like we had last year. If you review the July and August temps and precipitation forecasts on my pages it will school you on what to look for.

 

 

 

Filed under: Natural Processes,Project Progress — by Richard Holle @ 9:42 pm on February 20, 2013

Additional Map Detail to be Released in New Version

progress report on upcoming changes to add more detail to the forecast maps

I have upon investigation found that the amount of real information came be increased in the maps presented on the forecast pages, simply by using the fine resolution of the original data base. 95%tile of the data points used to generate the grids and maps are with in .9 degrees of their nearest neighbor, with the currently posted maps the default of 1.5 degrees grid spacing was chosen. and medium smoothing was used to make the maps match the usual resolution of forecasts found on line 5 years ago when this original set of maps were generated.

10%tile of the data points are within 1 mile of their nearest neighbor [multiple stations in and around large cities] which leads me to realize that I could drop the spacing between data points to shrink the grid spacing to 0.05 degrees or about 3 miles instead of the 90 miles I was using and end up with  900X the detail in the grid data base, then using NO smoothing could retain the 900X greater resolution in the maps themselves, by displaying temperatures as 1 degree F contour lines surface details that were hidden in the smoothing, can now be seen in the temperature variations naturally found in the real data base.

Samples of the Low temps from 2-14-2011 new 4 cycle maps are posted as screen shots of the current revision, (pending further improvements as we move toward finished update).

New Low Temperature Maps with 1 degree stepping between contours click to see larger size

Close up sample of the detail of the Texas UHI detail that can be seen, in the updated local forecast views, most of the surface land use details will shift from day to day as farming practices and recent precipitation, that affects the repeating patterns shown.

Zoomed to local view to show Texas urban heat island - click for larger size

It becomes easy to see not all of the warmer and cooler spots are due to cities alone, most are due to sheltering from weather due to surface textures that were preexisting before human occupation. People tended to settle in sheltered areas along water ways, so the natural heat islands have over the years, been human enhanced by urban growth. A fact of life not mentioned in the research literature?

 

Valleys in slow wind flows patterns can be over 10 degrees warmer than on windy days, like in the Dakotas in this screen shot, finished maps will be masked to block the random noise out side of the borders. Click to expand view and zoom in for more detail.

Got an update from Eric today, we have both been busy with our own projects and he has supplied me with a quote for the forecast setup services and a years subscription to his service, described;

Where we stand on the progress;
“As for delivery, I could do an analysis of the forecast format, etc.
like I did last time to make sure it’s suitable for import by the end
of September.  Then once any corrections are made, do the full
setup/import code.  If that went well (there were few corrections
needed, etc.) I could import September 2011 before October 15, which
would allow you to then see the September aggregations and data in
mid-October.”

working with huge data sets makes for slow progress, when I have limited funds available, but slow progress is better than no progress. The programer and I are still working out the details of the masking of the maps, and the rebuilding of the site layout to allow all of the additional maps in the higher resolution format. I am hoping to bring on line all of the additional features and the ongoing validation of the forecast accuracy by the first of the year 2012.

Filed under: Project Progress — by Richard Holle @ 5:27 pm on July 14, 2011

Progress on updates

From my years of electronics communications work modulating and then demodulating signals that have been transmitted over a radio frequency carrier methods, I can see ways the overall long term signals in the weather and climate data could be understood.

If the longest wave pattern indicative of a composite wave pattern is used as the key for the demodulation of the packets of individual periods of oscillation patterns, then the over lapping of several periods of these patterns should give an indication of the reproducibility of the original signals. (more…)

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Processes,Project Progress,Supporting Research — by Richard Holle @ 10:04 am on May 16, 2011

Just need more data to forecast more countries

Richard Holle says:

January 21, 2011 at 5:11 am

This is all an effect of the lunar declinational tides in their 18.6 year pattern of changes.
I forecast the weather based on a repeating cyclic pattern, the analog years for this year (2011) are 1956,1974, and 1992.

From the article””Many of the wettest years for the region occurred in La Nina years such as 1956, 1971, and 1974.””

So nothing to see here I guess, if some one from Australia could send me an FTTP site address where I could download all of the raw daily data from as many of the stations as possible from 1900 onward to present, I could produce a 10 year long forecast for you free of charge and available with in ~6 months or less.

richard at aerology.com

I would add an Australian page to my web site for your use, at my expense, just as I have now a forecast for the USA, for past three years and the next three in a daily map format.

*crickets*(still waiting for a response)

July 11th, 2011 [update] I found access to the data, has been paid for and shipped…..waiting..

Canadian data extracted, converted, tabled, and in QA processing of the rewrite of the software to accommodate the additional layout needed. We will get the newer HD maps for Alaska, and Canada up and running, then start processing the Australian data……..I want to have separate pages for each of the three areas.

Filed under: In other online forums,Project Progress,Uncategorized — by Richard Holle @ 5:11 am on January 21, 2011