Additional Map Detail to be Released in New Version
progress report on upcoming changes to add more detail to the forecast maps
I have upon investigation found that the amount of real information came be increased in the maps presented on the forecast pages, simply by using the fine resolution of the original data base. 95%tile of the data points used to generate the grids and maps are with in .9 degrees of their nearest neighbor, with the currently posted maps the default of 1.5 degrees grid spacing was chosen. and medium smoothing was used to make the maps match the usual resolution of forecasts found on line 5 years ago when this original set of maps were generated.
10%tile of the data points are within 1 mile of their nearest neighbor [multiple stations in and around large cities] which leads me to realize that I could drop the spacing between data points to shrink the grid spacing to 0.05 degrees or about 3 miles instead of the 90 miles I was using and end up with 900X the detail in the grid data base, then using NO smoothing could retain the 900X greater resolution in the maps themselves, by displaying temperatures as 1 degree F contour lines surface details that were hidden in the smoothing, can now be seen in the temperature variations naturally found in the real data base.
Samples of the Low temps from 2-14-2011 new 4 cycle maps are posted as screen shots of the current revision, (pending further improvements as we move toward finished update).
New Low Temperature Maps with 1 degree stepping between contours click to see larger size
Close up sample of the detail of the Texas UHI detail that can be seen, in the updated local forecast views, most of the surface land use details will shift from day to day as farming practices and recent precipitation, that affects the repeating patterns shown.
Zoomed to local view to show Texas urban heat island - click for larger size
It becomes easy to see not all of the warmer and cooler spots are due to cities alone, most are due to sheltering from weather due to surface textures that were preexisting before human occupation. People tended to settle in sheltered areas along water ways, so the natural heat islands have over the years, been human enhanced by urban growth. A fact of life not mentioned in the research literature?
Valleys in slow wind flows patterns can be over 10 degrees warmer than on windy days, like in the Dakotas in this screen shot, finished maps will be masked to block the random noise out side of the borders. Click to expand view and zoom in for more detail.
Got an update from Eric today, we have both been busy with our own projects and he has supplied me with a quote for the forecast setup services and a years subscription to his service, described;
Where we stand on the progress;
“As for delivery, I could do an analysis of the forecast format, etc.
like I did last time to make sure it’s suitable for import by the end
of September. Then once any corrections are made, do the full
setup/import code. If that went well (there were few corrections
needed, etc.) I could import September 2011 before October 15, which
would allow you to then see the September aggregations and data in
mid-October.”
working with huge data sets makes for slow progress, when I have limited funds available, but slow progress is better than no progress. The programer and I are still working out the details of the masking of the maps, and the rebuilding of the site layout to allow all of the additional maps in the higher resolution format. I am hoping to bring on line all of the additional features and the ongoing validation of the forecast accuracy by the first of the year 2012.
Progress on updates
From my years of electronics communications work modulating and then demodulating signals that have been transmitted over a radio frequency carrier methods, I can see ways the overall long term signals in the weather and climate data could be understood.
If the longest wave pattern indicative of a composite wave pattern is used as the key for the demodulation of the packets of individual periods of oscillation patterns, then the over lapping of several periods of these patterns should give an indication of the reproducibility of the original signals. (more…)
Just need more data to forecast more countries
Richard Holle says:
This is all an effect of the lunar declinational tides in their 18.6 year pattern of changes.
I forecast the weather based on a repeating cyclic pattern, the analog years for this year (2011) are 1956,1974, and 1992.
From the article””Many of the wettest years for the region occurred in La Nina years such as 1956, 1971, and 1974.””
So nothing to see here I guess, if some one from Australia could send me an FTTP site address where I could download all of the raw daily data from as many of the stations as possible from 1900 onward to present, I could produce a 10 year long forecast for you free of charge and available with in ~6 months or less.
richard at aerology.com
I would add an Australian page to my web site for your use, at my expense, just as I have now a forecast for the USA, for past three years and the next three in a daily map format.
*crickets*(still waiting for a response)
July 11th, 2011 [update] I found access to the data, has been paid for and shipped…..waiting..
Canadian data extracted, converted, tabled, and in QA processing of the rewrite of the software to accommodate the additional layout needed. We will get the newer HD maps for Alaska, and Canada up and running, then start processing the Australian data……..I want to have separate pages for each of the three areas.