Derecho storm seen from space

http://www.universetoday.com/96157/powerful-derecho-storms-as-seen-from-space/

The powerful windstorms that swept across the US last week was captured by several different satellites. This type of storm, called a derecho, moved from Illinois to the Mid-Atlantic states on June 29, and the movie from NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite shows the storms’ sudden expansion and speed. The storms left a more than 1,000-km (700-mile) trail of destruction across the Midwest and mid-Atlantic, cutting power to millions and killing thirteen people.

A derecho (pronounced “deh-REY-cho”) is not your average, ordinary local summer thunderstorm. These are widespread, long-lived but rare wind storms that are usually associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Damage from a derecho is usually in one direction along a relatively straight track. By definition an event is classified a derecho if the wind damage swath extends more than 400 km (240 miles) and includes wind gusts of at least 93 km/h (58 mph) or greater along most of its length.

These storms occur in the United States during the late spring and summer, with more than three quarters occurring between April and August.

The movie begins on June 28 at 15:15 UTC (11:15 a.m. EDT) and ends on June 30, 2012 at 16:01 UTC (12:01 p.m. EDT). In the animation, the derecho’s clouds appear as a line in the upper Midwest on June 29 at 14:32. By 16:02 UTC, they appear as a rounded area south of Lake Michigan. By 21:32, the area of the derecho’s clouds were near Lake Erie and over Ohio expanding as the system track southeast. By 06:30 UTC, the size appears to have almost doubled as the derecho moves over West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia. At 02:32 UTC on June 30 (10:32 p.m. EDT), the Derecho was over the mid-Atlantic bringing a 160 km (100 mile) line of severe storms and wind gusts as high as 144 km/h (90 mph) to the region.

“It is interesting how the process is a self-sustaining process that is fed by a combination of atmospheric factors that all have to be in place at the same time,” said Joe Witte, a meteorologist in Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, Va. and a consultant to NASA. “That is why they are relatively rare: not all the elements line up that often.”

[Its hard not to see the ionic surge of strength added to the normal precipitation front that gives this critter its forward speed and wind strength]

Richard Holle says:
July 3, 2012 at 5:02 pm

Part of the reason for the bow front storms (Derechos) is due to solar wind inductions into the earths magnetic field, and corresponding ion charge potentials between the poles and the equator due to homopolar generator effects. The more energetic the interactions between the suns production in spots and CMEs, (that put out short term surges in magnetic and ion flux,) the more is the effected storm strength and production. When the sun is active the shifts in polarity of the solar wind keep the storms active and spread out, when the magnetic field strength of the earth weakens and becomes stable for periods of time longer than about two weeks, then the polar to equatorial air mass interaction slows down giving rise to larger mid-latitude bands of clean dry air with low ion count. Blocking highs that occur in these areas produce droughts due to there is little precipitable water vapor, and no flux of ions into or out of the area to cause rainfall.
These spots develop low concentrations of ions due to the neutralizing effects of passing fronts, Further poleward you will find Negative ions abound (accounting for the acidic Ph of rain), and closer to the equator positive ions driven off of the ocean surface by wave action nebulization.

When the magnetic fields of the sun and the earth weaken the areas of neutral charged air masses increase in the mid-latitudes, forming into cutoff blocking highs, when surges of ions arrive from the CMEs and solar flares they produce a cascade of free electrons which sweep down on top of the existing Mobile Polar Highs, and show up as intense events due to the ion induced wind power added to the normal temperature gradient across fronts, by these huge surges in free electrons push into the mid-latitudes.
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi (graphs of electromagnetic activity of the interactions of the sunspots and CME’s upon the earths atmosphere) you can clearly see the shock impulses these past three days of CME arrival, at the same time the Drecheos were running across the charge boundary as the free electrons came cascading down from the North pole, as long as the graphs show rapid intense fluctuation the higher rate of precipitation results.

So the reason we are having summer droughts, and a lingering dry area in the Texas to South East of USA (for the past couple of years) is due to the decreasing strength of solar magnetic fields, resultant solar wind speed stability, and the probable weakening of the earths “permanent” fields. Thus lowering the ion content in the mid-latitudes allowing these events to occur. Drought until solar induced disruptions cause rapid discharges producing the Derechos along the periphery of the ion null, low aerosol content, zone of dry air in the blocking high pattern.

The maps shown on my site are for the normal average lunar declinational cyclic patterns and surges in ion inductions from solar activity show up as “out of the usual” or I totally miss their presence in my “forecasts for this cycle and I learn what is solar caused and what is not, how the interaction comes down. I learn more about how the electromagnetic interactions between the sun and the planets actually works quantitatively, as well as the length of timing durations to expect.
I built the web site as a learning tool to understand the entire system and its interactions. When I can derive algorithms to adjust the lunar declinational patterns by the expected solar activity, then I will be able to build an active weather forecasting method or model that works much better.

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Natural Processes,Severe Weather — by Richard Holle @ 3:33 am on July 7, 2012

2012 spring tornado forecast

Once again the Lunar declinational tidal effect is responsible but goes unmentioned, The moon was maximum North declination on the 1st of March, the solar declination seasonal tide is incoming from the South adding to the effect and making the resultant tropical air mass surge two days sooner than the usual, peak production on the day of Maximum North lunar declination and three days after.

I have had daily forecast maps for this expected precipitation posted for 51 months now;
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx

Details on how it works are posted on the site, in the blog/research section.

You can watch the incoming lunar tidal bulge sweep in from the Southwest in their short movie, and the back side more polar air mass brings in the negative static/ionic charges that gave added power to the temperature front to drive the condensation high enough to generate the tornadoes.

Over the next three days as the fetch of moisture slides East across Texas into the Gulf states, and the moon starts to head South again, Just as we are having a heliocentric conjunction with Mars on the 3rd, this is very likely to bring on another round of tornadoes.(they got that part right anyway) see my maps for these days as well.

Last year the big outbreak was enhanced by the heliocentric conjunction with Saturn, on the 3rd of April, which will be occurring on the 15th of April this year, so you can expect more outbreaks to occur from the 4-10-2012 Maximum South lunar declination and four day after window, another much larger 2 or 3 day burst as the moon crosses the equator on 4-17-2012. Then the heavy action through the end of the month of April, ending in last hurrah of big snows into the first week of May. Appalachian Ice storm seems to be on the 3rd through 5th of May, buy your replacement power poles early.

[This is the first post in a string of ongoing comments at the inquiry of _Jim for further information. Click this link to see more of the thread]

Filed under: In other online forums,Severe Weather,Supporting Research,Tornadoes — by Richard Holle @ 6:47 pm on March 1, 2012

Tornado Forecast verification?

Spring tornado outbreak forecast posted on the 2nd, below the verification updates,

Cost to public a couple clicks of the mouse,
to compare to my sites maps so far;

2-24=27 tornado reports  110224_rpts.html

2-25=1 tornado report  110225_rpts.html

2-27=18 tornado reports 110227_rpts.html

2-28=18 tornado reports 110228_rpts.html

3-05=10 tornado reports  110305_rpts.html

3-06=3 tornado reports 110306_rpts.html

3-08=19 tornado reports   110308_rpts.html

3-09=25 tornado reports  110309_rpts.html

3-10=4 tornado reports   110310_rpts.html

3-14=2 tornado reports   110314_rpts.html

3-18=1 tornado report   110318_rpts.html

3-19=1 tornado report   110319_rpts.html

3-21=1 tornado report   110321_rpts.html

3-22=19 tornado reports   110322_rpts.html

3-23=8 tornado reports  110323_rpts.html

3-26=8 tornado reports  110326_rpts.html

3-29=5 tornado reports  110329_rpts.html

3-30=1 tornado reports  110330_rpts.html

3-31=6 tornado reports  110331_rpts.html

4-4=67 tornado reports  110404_rpts.html

4-7=1 tornado report   110407_rpts.html

4-8=3 tornado reports  110408_rpts.html

4-9=32 tornado reports  110409_rpts.html

4-10=24 tornado reports  110410_rpts.html

4-13=1 tornado report  110413_rpts.html

4-14=27 tornado reports  110414_rpts.html

4-15=120 tornado reports   110415_rpts.html

4-16=120 tornado reports   110416_rpts.html
Richard Holle says:
March 2, 2011 at 12:32 pm
Tornado production is a result of Lunar declinational tides pulling air masses from more equatorial areas into the mid-latitudes, so the peak production times when they form can be predicted as the periods from Maximum North culmination to three days after, a couple of days when the moon crosses the equator headed North, and as the moon reaches maximum South declination and several days after.
These effects are due to the production of the primary and secondary tidal bulges in the atmosphere, that arrive at the same time as the ion content of the air masses reaches a local maximum. Between the induced charge differential between the +ion concentrations riding on the more equatorial sourced air mass, established ahead of the dry line front of -ion concentrated more polar air mass, that sweeps in from the West, forcing the precipitation into the rapidly moving narrow band of severe weather from which the tornadoes form on the trailing edges.
The periods when these effects will be most likely to occur this spring,
2-25/28 for three days, which we just had, around max South.
3-5/7 slight chance of small outbreak
3-12/17 starting in Arkansas through Kentucky and the Ohio river valley
3-25/30 Starting Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas through Ohio river valley the beginning of a long period of very wet activity most of April.
4-5/8 start up of activity
with the re-enactment of the 1974 outbreak most possible in the period
4-8/13 Maps of the expected precipitation can be found on my site, bearing in mind that the tornado and severe activity usually forms in the fast moving part of the frontal boundary and not usually in the areas of heaviest total daily precipitation.
On the maps show on my site you can expect to see the tornado development in the areas with the “netted” looking precipitation patterns due to the usual nature of the part of the front where they occur.
1974 is one of the analog years for my forecast method, which is why I mention we may see a replay of that out break.

[for what its worth NOAA changed the way it reports # of storm reports]

On 31/03/2011, at 5:13, David Imy <David.Imy@noaa.gov> wrote:

Ed,

This is very important and may through a kink in your hail study.  We changed the way we report severe events and starting on March 8, 2011, we no longer use the proximity space/time rule to de-duplicate events and minimal filtering is now applied to the decoded reports. This means if a duplicate report is sent, it will be encoded twice on the storm reports page and count as two events (when in reality it is only 1). Also, prior to March 8th, if the same hail or wind event occurred  with 10 miles or within 15 minutes of the same event, it was not logged onto the Storm Reports page (assumed to be the same storm report). These two factors will result in many more wind and hail reports than in the past (neither correct or incorrect), though the user has to dig more through the actual reports, as opposed to using the actual numbers. This is not a conspiracy against your project, but a request from many of our users that has been in the works for some time.  Anyway, I wanted you to be aware.

David

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Natural Processes,Tornadoes — by Richard Holle @ 8:53 pm on April 16, 2011

Magnetic Tornadoes Could Liberate Mercury’s Tenuous Atmosphere

Carla says:

From an earlier orbit of Mercury by Messenger this article describing some of what they saw happening with Mercury’s magnetic field.

“””Magnetic Tornadoes Could Liberate Mercury’s Tenuous Atmosphere
06.02.09
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/messenger/multimedia/magnetic_tornadoes.html
..During its second flyby of the planet on October 6, 2008, MESSENGER discovered that Mercury’s magnetic field can be extremely leaky indeed. The spacecraft encountered magnetic “tornadoes” – twisted bundles of magnetic fields connecting the planetary magnetic field to interplanetary space – that were up to 500 miles wide or a third of the radius of the planet. (more…)

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Processes,Supporting Research,Tornadoes,Uncategorized — by Richard Holle @ 5:46 am on March 18, 2011

No increase in severe weather

The record shows that there has been no increase in:

– the number of tornadoes
– the number or intensity of hurricanes
– the number of severe floods

as a result of AGW (since the late 20th century warming period cited by IPCC started around 1976).

I have not checked droughts, as the record is a bit sketchy, but it appears clear to me that the physically observed record does not support the IPCC postulation (or Zwiers’ statement) that AGW has caused an incfrease in severe weather events (at least in the USA, for which data are available).

Max

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Natural Processes,Severe Weather — by Richard Holle @ 9:05 pm on March 9, 2011