2012 spring tornado forecast

Once again the Lunar declinational tidal effect is responsible but goes unmentioned, The moon was maximum North declination on the 1st of March, the solar declination seasonal tide is incoming from the South adding to the effect and making the resultant tropical air mass surge two days sooner than the usual, peak production on the day of Maximum North lunar declination and three days after.

I have had daily forecast maps for this expected precipitation posted for 51 months now;
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx

Details on how it works are posted on the site, in the blog/research section.

You can watch the incoming lunar tidal bulge sweep in from the Southwest in their short movie, and the back side more polar air mass brings in the negative static/ionic charges that gave added power to the temperature front to drive the condensation high enough to generate the tornadoes.

Over the next three days as the fetch of moisture slides East across Texas into the Gulf states, and the moon starts to head South again, Just as we are having a heliocentric conjunction with Mars on the 3rd, this is very likely to bring on another round of tornadoes.(they got that part right anyway) see my maps for these days as well.

Last year the big outbreak was enhanced by the heliocentric conjunction with Saturn, on the 3rd of April, which will be occurring on the 15th of April this year, so you can expect more outbreaks to occur from the 4-10-2012 Maximum South lunar declination and four day after window, another much larger 2 or 3 day burst as the moon crosses the equator on 4-17-2012. Then the heavy action through the end of the month of April, ending in last hurrah of big snows into the first week of May. Appalachian Ice storm seems to be on the 3rd through 5th of May, buy your replacement power poles early.

[This is the first post in a string of ongoing comments at the inquiry of _Jim for further information. Click this link to see more of the thread]

Filed under: In other online forums,Severe Weather,Supporting Research,Tornadoes — by Richard Holle @ 6:47 pm on March 1, 2012

Tornado Forecast verification?

Spring tornado outbreak forecast posted on the 2nd, below the verification updates,

Cost to public a couple clicks of the mouse,
to compare to my sites maps so far;

2-24=27 tornado reports  110224_rpts.html

2-25=1 tornado report  110225_rpts.html

2-27=18 tornado reports 110227_rpts.html

2-28=18 tornado reports 110228_rpts.html

3-05=10 tornado reports  110305_rpts.html

3-06=3 tornado reports 110306_rpts.html

3-08=19 tornado reports   110308_rpts.html

3-09=25 tornado reports  110309_rpts.html

3-10=4 tornado reports   110310_rpts.html

3-14=2 tornado reports   110314_rpts.html

3-18=1 tornado report   110318_rpts.html

3-19=1 tornado report   110319_rpts.html

3-21=1 tornado report   110321_rpts.html

3-22=19 tornado reports   110322_rpts.html

3-23=8 tornado reports  110323_rpts.html

3-26=8 tornado reports  110326_rpts.html

3-29=5 tornado reports  110329_rpts.html

3-30=1 tornado reports  110330_rpts.html

3-31=6 tornado reports  110331_rpts.html

4-4=67 tornado reports  110404_rpts.html

4-7=1 tornado report   110407_rpts.html

4-8=3 tornado reports  110408_rpts.html

4-9=32 tornado reports  110409_rpts.html

4-10=24 tornado reports  110410_rpts.html

4-13=1 tornado report  110413_rpts.html

4-14=27 tornado reports  110414_rpts.html

4-15=120 tornado reports   110415_rpts.html

4-16=120 tornado reports   110416_rpts.html
Richard Holle says:
March 2, 2011 at 12:32 pm
Tornado production is a result of Lunar declinational tides pulling air masses from more equatorial areas into the mid-latitudes, so the peak production times when they form can be predicted as the periods from Maximum North culmination to three days after, a couple of days when the moon crosses the equator headed North, and as the moon reaches maximum South declination and several days after.
These effects are due to the production of the primary and secondary tidal bulges in the atmosphere, that arrive at the same time as the ion content of the air masses reaches a local maximum. Between the induced charge differential between the +ion concentrations riding on the more equatorial sourced air mass, established ahead of the dry line front of -ion concentrated more polar air mass, that sweeps in from the West, forcing the precipitation into the rapidly moving narrow band of severe weather from which the tornadoes form on the trailing edges.
The periods when these effects will be most likely to occur this spring,
2-25/28 for three days, which we just had, around max South.
3-5/7 slight chance of small outbreak
3-12/17 starting in Arkansas through Kentucky and the Ohio river valley
3-25/30 Starting Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas through Ohio river valley the beginning of a long period of very wet activity most of April.
4-5/8 start up of activity
with the re-enactment of the 1974 outbreak most possible in the period
4-8/13 Maps of the expected precipitation can be found on my site, bearing in mind that the tornado and severe activity usually forms in the fast moving part of the frontal boundary and not usually in the areas of heaviest total daily precipitation.
On the maps show on my site you can expect to see the tornado development in the areas with the “netted” looking precipitation patterns due to the usual nature of the part of the front where they occur.
1974 is one of the analog years for my forecast method, which is why I mention we may see a replay of that out break.

[for what its worth NOAA changed the way it reports # of storm reports]

On 31/03/2011, at 5:13, David Imy <David.Imy@noaa.gov> wrote:

Ed,

This is very important and may through a kink in your hail study.  We changed the way we report severe events and starting on March 8, 2011, we no longer use the proximity space/time rule to de-duplicate events and minimal filtering is now applied to the decoded reports. This means if a duplicate report is sent, it will be encoded twice on the storm reports page and count as two events (when in reality it is only 1). Also, prior to March 8th, if the same hail or wind event occurred  with 10 miles or within 15 minutes of the same event, it was not logged onto the Storm Reports page (assumed to be the same storm report). These two factors will result in many more wind and hail reports than in the past (neither correct or incorrect), though the user has to dig more through the actual reports, as opposed to using the actual numbers. This is not a conspiracy against your project, but a request from many of our users that has been in the works for some time.  Anyway, I wanted you to be aware.

David

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Natural Processes,Tornadoes — by Richard Holle @ 8:53 pm on April 16, 2011

Magnetic Tornadoes Could Liberate Mercury’s Tenuous Atmosphere

Carla says:

From an earlier orbit of Mercury by Messenger this article describing some of what they saw happening with Mercury’s magnetic field.

“””Magnetic Tornadoes Could Liberate Mercury’s Tenuous Atmosphere
06.02.09
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/messenger/multimedia/magnetic_tornadoes.html
..During its second flyby of the planet on October 6, 2008, MESSENGER discovered that Mercury’s magnetic field can be extremely leaky indeed. The spacecraft encountered magnetic “tornadoes” – twisted bundles of magnetic fields connecting the planetary magnetic field to interplanetary space – that were up to 500 miles wide or a third of the radius of the planet. (more…)

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Processes,Supporting Research,Tornadoes,Uncategorized — by Richard Holle @ 5:46 am on March 18, 2011

Tornado forecast spring 2011

March 2, 2011 at 12:32 pm

Tornado production is a result of Lunar declinational tides pulling air masses from more equatorial areas into the mid-latitudes, so the peak production times when they form can be predicted as the periods from Maximum North culmination to three days after, a couple of days when the moon crosses the equator headed North, and as the moon reaches maximum South declination and several days after.

These effects are due to the production of the primary and secondary tidal bulges in the atmosphere, that arrive at the same time as the ion content of the air masses reaches a local maximum. Between the induced charge differential between the +ion concentrations riding on the more equatorial sourced air mass, established ahead of the dry line front of -ion concentrated more polar air mass, that sweeps in from the West, forcing the precipitation into the rapidly moving narrow band of severe weather from which the tornadoes form on the trailing edges.

The periods when these effects will be most likely to occur this spring,
2-25/28 for three days, which we just had, around max South.
3-5/7 slight chance of small outbreak
3-12/17 starting in Arkansas through Kentucky and the Ohio river valley
3-25/30 Starting Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas through Ohio river valley the beginning of a long period of very wet activity most of April.
4-5/8 start up of activity
with the re-enactment of the 1974 outbreak most possible in the period
4-8/13 Maps of the expected precipitation can be found on my site, bearing in mind that the tornado and severe activity usually forms in the fast moving part of the frontal and not usually in the areas of heaviest total daily precipitation.

On the maps show on my site you can expect to see the tornado development in the areas with the “netted” looking precipitation patterns due to the usual nature of the part of the front where they occur.

1974 is one of the analog years for my forecast method, which is why I mention we may see a replay of that out break. It is also why I am in Mesa Az., instead of Kansas this spring.

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Disasters,Tornadoes — by Richard Holle @ 12:32 pm on March 2, 2011

An Integrated Electromagnetic and Thermodynamic (EMTD) Approach to the Study of Supercell Thunderstorms and Tornadoes

One man’s attempt to understand it all, Charles L. Chandler

http://charles-chandler.org/Geophysics/Tornadoes%20Main.php

People who have read previous versions of this work might be surprised to see that the contentions herein continue to evolve. Unlike “academic” works, where the objective is to take a position and then defend it for credibility’s sake, the objective of this work is to be as comprehensive and accurate as possible. Hence this work has changed, as comments and criticisms from readers like you have created opportunities for improvements, and it will continue to change. This causes confusion, but that’s better than tenacity in the face of legitimate criticisms. Perhaps this will always be a work-in-progress, as it is doubtful that any of us will live to see something as complex as a tornadic supercell completely described. But if we should ever have to choose between truth and credibility, we must always choose truth, because credibility isn’t worth much without it. And while this work is still very speculative, it is nevertheless arguable that it has emerged as the most complete theory of supercells and tornadoes ever presented to the public. So the method is working, and therefore, it will persist.

Filed under: Tornadoes — by Richard Holle @ 9:57 am on March 22, 2010