Forecast maps for snow in April may 2011?
Richard Holle says:
Got an email yesterday…….Richard, I went to your website for the first time and found it fascinating but some of your forecasts for snow in the NE (I live in North Jersey) in April and May, 2011 and 2012, seem extremely unlikely to verify. Are they real forecasts made using your system, or are they some type of website error? If they were to verify, goodbye interglacial, hello Ice Age!
Look forward to hearing back from you on this.
The data used to form the maps is derived by pulling up the daily data from the same dates (within 11 to 14 days of the same as the julian date of the forecast) from past cycles from 19, 37, and 55 years before the forecast date. In these past years these actual amounts of snowfall occurred and most likely will again. However given that the solar activity was higher then, than it is projected to be for the next 10+ years.
When these cyclic patterns return I expect to see the temperatures to be running as much as 3 to 6 degrees colder, which in the past two springs allowed the snow, and freezing rain line to drop a couple hundred miles further South into the rain I had forecast. For an example look back at the forecasts maps that are still posted for the massive freezing rain caused power outage in the Tennessee, and Kentucky area the last two years. It was verified the last two years, and I expect it will again.
Welcome back to the good ole days your parents speak about.