Tail end discussions are profitable
Richard Holle says:
Stephen Wilde says:
October 20, 2010 at 9:05 am
“”Bob. it’s probably unwise to keep banging away at each other in public.””
Quite the contrary, I find that a lot of the time when these threads go cold enough for the trolls to be disinterested, as they follow the hot new topics, in search of their much needed attention.
Allows those with a real interest in the base subject matter to discuss rather than debate points of interest, to where real peer review happens real time to the benefit of total understanding of the process.
I would like to inject my viewpoints for you to consider as well, because you are both looking at the same problem with out having a real handle on the modulation of the solar drivers, by the actions of the long term periodic forcing of the global circulation patterns, by the multiple lunar tidal forcings and periods of actions.
The shifts from mostly zonal flow to very loopy jet stream patterns, is a direct result of the effects of the 18.6 year periods of the lunar declinational movement, compounded by the shorter term 27.32 day basic period cycles, inter acting with the gradual shifting of the modulation of the 28 day phase effects with the 27.32 day declinational effects, Better defined by the length of the QBO cycle = 28X27.32 =~765 days. Being further modulated by the synod conjunctions of the outer planets driving the separation between jets, by the more pole ward movement during approach, and the convergence of the resultant fronts post conjunctions.
Further complicated by the pole shift of the polar vortex’s from South to North and resultant shift in balance in the Sea ice concentration and severity of winter weather, being traceable to the net effects of the outer planets being by heliocentric declination above or below the ecliptic plane, on a longer time cycle, and also being modulated by synod conjunctions of individual planets.
The ENSO patterns both types of El nino patterns and la nina patterns and arrival timing, are the secondary result of these interactive relationships, and will not be forecast able until the solar system wide driving mechanisms are fully understood.
Per example once you realize you live two blocks from a large high school, it is easy to under stand why the traffic around 3 pm is just crazy, and every time they have a sports event it extends clear until it is over.
One of the mechanisms neither of you are considering is the effects on reflectivity and position of the cloud cover, during the charge and discharge cycles of ion pumping into and out of the atmosphere at every synod conjunction, as well as the pass of the Earth between the center of the galaxy and the sun every Northern summer. That affects the amount of atmospheric moisture vapor that is inhibited from condensing into clouds by ionization (effectively static charges) that are mutually repulsive and set the size and density of the cloud droplets.
None of these effects are modeled well in either weather or climate models, but algorithms can be derived from observations with respect to, the above planetary and lunar effects, that can then be incorporated into the models, coupled with the cyclic patterns of the lunar declinational tidal effects in the production and modulation of the jet streams and their resultant positions, to get some thing that works for as long a term as the length of the longest cyclic patterns considered.
I read every thing posted to this and several other blogs regarding weather, and it would be a shame that any good ideas I can surmise, from the composite knowledge that can be gleaned should go to waste, by your/their dismissing the composite understanding because it is not all of your/their own making.