Jet stream drivers of movement
Richard Holle says:
If you look at the polar graphs like this on posted by Ryan Maue on the ice pages;
You can see right now the surge of warm moist air sitting on the arctic cap, is just like the one that was coming up over Greenland last week. These surges are the result of the lunar declinational tides reaching the same angle at culmination as the apparent sun angle at culmination. This harmonic convergence of the solar and lunar air tides, is able to drive larger more consolidated equatorial air masses that are being pulsed by every 13.7 and 27.3 day lunar declination culmination onto the arctic dispatching cold dry air out the other side of the globe.
Thus consolidated, the jet streams that follow the edges of these surges of competing temperatures, form massive loops with blocking highs, formed out of the polar return pulses to the mid-latitudes. The monsoonal flows from the equator on the warm pulses give us the massive flooding due to the greater than average size of the tidal bulges. So it follows that the hot dry peat burning spell, and the soggy bottom of Pakistan, and the tropical storms over the Atlantic, some with vorticity is just the result of the 18.6 year pattern of lunar declination.
When we get past a couple more years, then the angle of declination culmination will be lower ~21 degrees, for about 6 years, 3 down to 18 and 3 back up to this point again. The jet streams will get much smoother and separate more as the tidal pulses will mix in the mid-latitudes and not make inroads into the Arctic. The greater through mixing in between the more separated polar jet and the tropical trades, will help to keep the skies clear in most of the mid-latitudes, and cloudy around the equator, the poles colder as the circumpolar jets will act more like the Southern pole does now.
This should give an increase in polar sea ice on both poles. But I would expect less snow above 80 degrees North.
The other process that concerns the raising and lowering of the polar jet streams is the total flux of EMF fields being coupled into the earth because of the solar activity level and the solar wind. When stable and with very little change the Polar Jet streams, and LOD will be smooth with inductive shifts to higher levels of EMF flux, the zonal flow rates will increase along with the LOD shorting, and cloudiness along the ITCZ will decrease although the speed of the trade winds, moisture vapor content, and resultant specific heat will increase. ENSO effect as you call it, is the combination of these effects due to this interaction between the two processes both the lunar declinational tidal effects in the air and oceans, and the shifts in solar wind speed modulated by the interactions of the other planets with the sun/earth/moon system.
This complex repeating pattern has had at least 3 billion years to stabilize into a mnemonic balance of interlocking cycles, with gradual shifts as new in falling material is incorporated into the bodies, and the particle flow in the solar wind takes the refuse back out toward the heliopause.
To not consider these drivers of the resultant turbulence in the global circulation, that stir the mix continually, as important to study as the paths of the storms, soot, and volcanic ash that float around on these currents, was a mistake made back in the 1950′s, when weather forecasting teams first got hooked on numerical models. Now following in their standard practice, Climate Scientist are using models that do not incorporate these long term drivers of the weather to predict the climate as well.
When university backed research is done to find the connections between the Sun/earth/moon system and the rest of the solar system, then these forecasting problems will just go away, because they won’t listen to some “off the street idea” from someone with out the ability to publish in a journal to be peer reviewed.