LOD and Lunar declinational interactions with the PDO?
I need some clarification here.
A. You said: “The 18.6 year cycle shows up in the variance, not the mean.”
Are you saying that the 18.6 year lunar tidal cycle modulates the variation of climate signal rather than affects it long-term mean? I am genuinely asking a question here, as I am not quiet sure what you are implying.
B. You said: “Lunisolar frequencies are stationary. It’s solar frequency that’s nonstationary.”
This is certainly not true if patterns in the Luni-Solar tides are indirectly linked with the
factors that control long-term variations in solar activity. In this case you cannot separate
the two phenomenon as one one would reinforce the other e.g. Gleissberg and deVrier
cycles. It would be crazy to call one stationary and the other non-stationary. At the barest minimum, you need to clarify the timescales over which you are making this assertion. I do not believe that it is true on multi-decadal time scales.
C. You quote: Carvalho, L.M.V.; Tsonis, A.A.; Jones, C.; Rocha, H.R.; & Polito, P.S. (2007). Anti-persistence in the global temperature anomaly field. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 14, 723-733. http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/gem/papers/npg-14-723-2007.pdf
However, this paper only finds non-persistence variations up to 7 years and says nothing about inter-decadal variations, which is the topic here.
D. You said: “I would like to see Ninderthana, Erl Happ, Tomas Milanovic, or whoever attempt (either now or in the future) to prove incorrect Bob’s assertion that PDO is an aftereffect of ENSO.”
PHYSICS dictates that you cannot have A driving B if changes in B occur before A [ignoring the obvious exceptions due to Relativity and high speeds]
If you are claiming to support Bob’s assertion that the PDO is an after effect of the ENSO then
you are violating this basic scientific principle.
Both of you know that it is possible to measure the intensity, as well a relative frequency, of El Nino/La Nina events. I am absolutely certain that you are not willing to defend the notion that ALL El Nino/La Nina events have the same intensity.
My investigations of El Ninos from 1525 to the present show that the mean intensity of El Nino events continuously increase in magnitude while the PDO is in its positive phase, and continuously decrease in magnitude while the PDO is in its negative phase.
Here is the temporal sequence [note that the PDO changes from + to -, and vice versa, typically take place over periods of time that Over the next 30 years the El Ninos responds to this change in the PDO by continuously increasing in intensity –> PDO changes from positive to negative –> Over the next 30 years the El Ninos responds to this change in the PDO by continuously decreasing in intensity.
Unless you are suggesting that causality is reversed, then I do not believe that you have a leg to stand on.
The reason, I cannot go further into discussions on this topic is that fact that I am in the process of writing a number of peer-reviewed papers on climate. Claire Periguad’s group is also investigating the same phenomenon. However, she has the advantage of being in a collaboration that includes half a dozen scientists, dozens of post-grad/grad students and
that has $ 100,000′s in research funding to complete her two year research program. I have a bung Italian oil heater (in an Australian Winter) and a couple of cans of bake-beans.
So you will have to excuse me while I get back to Summer time maximum temperatures in Melbourne between 1856 and 2011.
[I love the way the discussion on treads gets on track when the trolls are done hassling the flow of ideas and move on, leaving the people with opinions and ideas on how the science really works, in peace to sort out the ins and outs of the connectivity of the solar/lunar modulation of the atmospheric oscillations from the myriad assortment of accepted new ideas vying for universal understanding and hence acceptance.
This tread is a very good example of the state of the art of disentangling drivers from indexes, and harmonics from further compounding from additional factors. I would suggest reading the whole thing.]