Progress in forecasting development by self and others

Richard Holle | October 11, 2010 at 1:38 pm | Reply

The primary drives of the global circulation are not defined in numerical models, the secondary effects they produce, are not understood well enough to be predictable yet. In weather forecasts the accuracy drops off in 7 to 10 days, and is totally out of phase with the primary drivers of the weather in 14 days.

As long as “the team” are going to avoid understanding the connections between the primary drivers, their secondary effects (which can be only predicted from the vantage point of incorporation of the primary drivers over time), and their interactions with the initial rest conditions of the tertiary effects that are now being just loaded, crunched, and controlled by the factors that are used in the formulation of the processes that deal with the step progressions in running the numerical modeling programs forward in time.

There will be little progress in forecast development that has a shelf life of resultant usability better than a month.

This is why there is little faith placed in CAGW forecasts, any one who knows anything about how the weather really works, understands the real drivers are not even understood enough to used in models yet, and with out considering the background patterns of the seasonal, annual, decadal trends that determine how the weather works, are even used in weather forecasting, in a viable active method, why should ANY confidence be placed in CAGW long range unverifiable modeled forecasts?

So after raising all of these questions I am responsible to give reasons for my opinion, it would not be in good faith for me not to.

Short term solar cycles of the 27 day rotation periods, due to the polarity shifts in magnetic flux changes in the solar wind, The moon has a North/South declinational component as part of it’s set of orbital parameters. Thus affecting the South/North movement of the center of mass of the Earth acting from its fulcrum point around the barycenter, in all three orthographic dimensions, as well as LOD, acceleration / deceleration, and perigee apogee changes.

These modulations are coupled into the atmosphere and oceans as tidal effects, that are well understood and predictable for the oceans, and are just as regular in their affects on the atmosphere. However the study of these drivers of large scale waves in the atmosphere, and their resultant periodic oscillations induced into the ocean atmosphere boundary problems, have not been given enough focus of investigation, in favor of funding dynamic atmospheric forecast models since the 1950′s.

What has happened is that the base of knowledge that should be there to compute the longer cycles of repeating influence, driving the global circulations dynamics has been left behind, and it is only now that we realize that even a nice new Corvette, is not going to work well 600 miles from the nearest gravel road up in the Himalayas. The basic infrastructure has to be there to support a heavy trucking industry, other wise we are just back packing through the wilderness.

I have bothered to put together a basic understanding of the Lunar tidal forces and their effects, into an analog method that takes advantage of the repeating composite patterns of the global circulation patterns, that should be forming the basic underlying premise of the forecast models currently in use. In order to bring foreword into the present the package “the team” needs to fix their problems with long range forecasting, of both weather and climate.

Just by using the analog patterns of how these drivers of the weather repeat in an interacting interlaced method, results in a long range forecast with greater accuracy than the best models get out past 7 days.

Skeptical? I was when I started, 25 years ago, funded only by part of my own hourly wage, just because it needed to be done, I offer it here as a contribution to the overall increased understanding of how the whole solar system works.

The basic unpolished forecasts can be viewed for the past 32 months of the 72 month set of daily forecast maps patterns, (generated and posted to the internet November and December of 2007,) for verification that the process is as I say it is and works, it is my hope that this ongoing work of my life time contribution, can be used for the betterment and advancement of all mankind.

There is nothing more wasted than a good education that produces nothing of worth, unless it is a good idea whose time has come being over looked because it was someone else’s.


Richard Holle

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Processes — by Richard Holle @ 1:38 am on October 11, 2010


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