free long term weather forecasting
Richard Holle | October 7, 2010 at 5:16 pm | Reply
There has been recent focus on solar influences on weather, the give and take of solar cycles is being debated. Where the mainstream meteorologists have gone wrong with modeling is that they are ignoring the Moon and it’s myriad interacting tidal periods.
The diurnal tides as the moon passes over head, affects the surges in precipitation rates, and it’s interaction as the light phase shifts causes these effects to vary across the time of day.
Some of the Lunar studies done in the past with the best signal to noise ratios, were in regard to precipitation rates related to sun/moon rise and set time, and the time of day of rainfall occurrence.
Where the lunar cyclic studies in the past went wrong was the dependence on light phase focus. The actual most effective indicators of lunar effects on the weather are due to the Declinational tides as the Moon moves North / South in the 27.32 day cycle in phase with the rotation of the magnetic poles of the sun. In other words the varying magnetic polarity of the solar wind is actually driving the Earth and moon individual centers of mass above / below the ecliptic plane formed by system’s barycenter position.
This inductive movement results in the driving of the meridional flow structure of the atmosphere, that creates and maintains the Rossby waves and the jet streams that form along the areas of fastest flow as a result of the surges in the pumping of equatorial air masses into the mid latitudes, pressing against the polar out flows and their combining to produce the modulation of the resultant tidal bulges as they propagate around the global circulation patterns in a four fold pattern. Details @
Due to the long term trends of the 18.6 year pattern of min max culmination angle changes from 18.5 degrees to 28.7 degrees either side of the equator, for an included angle just short of 60 degrees, these driven patterns form cyclic repeats in the movement of frontal systems that account for more than 80% of the background variability in the weather and climate.
By finding these natural analogs and filtering the past three cycles of patterns to synchronize the declinational, phase, perigee apogee cycles along with the electromagnetic solar wind effects driven from the inner planets I have devised the above method of plotting the expected repeats of the cyclic patterns, that account for the real drivers of the weather patterns to the resultant combination of the data from the past cycles generates an analog signal that can be used as a forecast, for this cycle.
Were it not for the disturbances in the electromagnetic flux in the flows of the solar wind strength, created by the occurrence of Synod conjunctions of the Earth with the outer planets, this inner planet / Lunar pattern would be 95% accurate. However with the every 12 to 13 month influences by the outer planets causing the most notable 6 to 10 day long, surges in global tropical and mid-latitude cyclone generation and intensity, more work still needs to be done.
Posted in the above link is the number of days to shift each cycle of the past “dates of data for input” into the resultant analog, (with a check to see how the leap year date progression affects the actual date of the forecast needed two out of four years.)
If you just apply the process to the data history, this will produce for you the patterns of the times of droughts, and major floods, you would need to plug into the models you are using to fine tune the one to two week forward windows of time they now fall apart in, that could be easily extended to a couple of years.
I have helped my local neighbors plan crop rotations, dry land planting of corn, or milo, soybeans or wheat, best years for Alfalfa or grass, hay production and best times for cutting bailing of hay, for over 15 years now, most of them (that will listen to me) now operate way in the black, and are out of debt.
The forecast method is simple, put all raw daily data into tables one file for each parameter followed, per each past date for the total area wanted to cover. Then pull up the files for the three cyclic dates of past data for the forecast date in question, form composite grid, plot map, post to server, pull up data for next / repeat till forecast period up to 18 years is covered. Store and print as needed, if I can be of more detailed assistance let me know, I am retired and can travel, if my travel and per diem expenses can be covered, by requester.
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