Original Hypothesis November 1994 and update on progress November 1997

FOUND!!!! Still in original format misspelling, warts and all, revisions have been made to the hypothesis in its current posting to alleviate errors found through ongoing further investigation and extended peer reviewing, as it is what science does to makes progress.


Original letter Nov 1994 and update on progress Nov 1997 below.


A Hypothesis as a result of independent study. Nov. 1994

Due to the right hand rule of physics, homopolar generator charges result when a magnetic material rotates in a magnetic field. There is a deflection of positive carriers toward the circumference, or the equator in the case of the Earth, and electrons or negative ions are pushed toward the axis, or poles. The resultant charge difference from axis to circumference is dependent upon the magnetic permeability, the magnetic field strength, and rotational speed, and increases in either rotational speed, or field strength, will force the system to charge or discharge proportionally. Or to speed up or slow down, along with charge changes,when the field strength is varied.

These forces affect stellar growth and show up as electron and/or negative ion flows from the poles of protostars, which continues until the star has gained enough mass to gravitationally hold a balance with the radiational pressure, on these ions, that are suspended on magnetic field lines that flow out with the ions. When the star reaches equilibration of these forces, for it’s mass, it is said to be mature and then falls on the main sequence.

As the individual particles stream from the star, they are slowed by expansive cooling, random collisions, gravitational, and magnetic attraction to the star. As the speed of ongoing collisions in the wind slows, the absolute temperature drops, and the particles de-ionize, form atoms again, and by random collision forces, acting similar to fractional distillation forces, separate the elements and compounds by their density to surface area ratios. The density gradient in the planets that form is a result of this process. The large gas planets form out past the range where the ambient temperature in the solar wind allows hydrogen to de-ionize.

As this process starts in the young solar nebula that build around maturing stars, the homopolar fields sweep positive charged and neutral particles onto the star’s magnetic equator, where gravitational and tidal forces clump them together into planets and their moons. In the case of the Earth there where large fluxes of gravitational, tidal, and magnetic forces that required the formation of a two body Earth/Moon system, with the resultant orbital dynamics of the moon, needed to maintain stability.

There are field lines from the Sun to every particle that remains inside the ionic sphere of it’s domain. When the solar nebula was uncluttered with planets, the fields were evenly distributed. Now however there are magnetic couplings between the Sun and the planets, representative of their size and magnetic content.

When planets come into alignment heliocentrically, their magnetic fields couple through each other, producing a momentary peak in field strength at these conjunctions, which pulls out loops of magnetic fields from inside the Sun, solar prominences of particles form as they follow the field lines. The timing, duration, and intensity of these pulses depends upon which and how many planets are having a conjunction, and how close together the alignment is at the peak of coupling.

When ever the two largest gas planets, Jupiter and Saturn have a Heliocentric conjunction, the amount of coupling is high enough to cause large solar storms, and when the Earth is in the line of fire, it inducts huge magnetic storms into the atmosphere. Large power generating systems usually fail to handle the near D.C. low frequency current flows induced into the grids ground buss systems, causing current overloads and large scale power outages.

The Earth’s large scale magnetic fields are toroid shaped due to the mantle being a good blend of magnetic materials, and the inner core, being composed of elements heavier than Iron, doesn’t conduct magnetic fields well. The hole in the Ozone at the South pole is caused by this shape, as the weakness of the flux density inside the hole area, fails to maintain the conversion of oxygen into ozone. The usual conservation of energy mechanism, in areas of high magnetic field density because the difference between O2 and O3 in magnetic susceptibility is a thousandfold.

The homopolar generator effects of the Earth are influenced by it’s rotational speed, and the variability of the interplanetary magnetic field strength. Studies of the length of day change show a seasonal speeding up of the Earth as we pass between the Sun and the center of the Galaxy, due to the increased magnetic field couplings there. The remnant magnetic coupling effects of the "Grand Alignment" of the planets,are occurring in (1995) late summer, and you should be able to see their influences in current length of day change studies.

The Moon is magnetically and gravitationally locked to the Earth, and when I looked at the Auroral displays, the extension of fields between the Earth and Moon produces a bulge in the displayed Auroral activity that rotates with the moon. It is the Earth/Moon barycenter, not the center of mass of the Earth that scribes the smooth ellipsoidal orbit of the Earth on the ecliptic plane, around this, the center of mass of the Earth follows a spiraling path, as a result of the leveraging of the moon’s declinational and rotational movement. With this spiraling of the center of mass of the Earth above and below the ecliptic plane, induction forces felt upon the Earth (working similar to someone moving a magnet in and out of a coil), Drive the magnetic fields of the Earth’s internal dynamo into typical shock exited oscillations, at the driven periodicity.

The Lunar declinational component cycles from a minimum of 18 1/2 degrees, to a maximum of 27 1/2 degrees in the 18.6 year Mn cycle, displacing the center of mass of the Earth 800Km to 1400Km either side of the ecliptic plane.

As the moon moves from North to South, air masses are moved in phase. Magnetic fields produced by the inductive effects of this movement sweep ions and static charges, along with the air masses, Because of the herding effects of the fields, the charges move with the leading edges of the air masses, so these residual charges are not depleted as thought, and are visible by Doppler radar, but have been dismissed as solely the particulate matter and small insects that get caught up in the charge front.

Air masses and the clouds perturbed from equatorial areas carry a net positive residual ionic/static charge, that helps prevent rapid condensation, by mutual static repulsion between condensational nuclei that maintains more uniform size of nebulized droplets, aids in super cooling, and results in rapid precipitation when meeting air masses from more polar regions which carry a residual negative ionic/static charge, that also prevents rapid condensation by mutual static repulsion inside of those clouds.

Upon meeting at a frontal boundary, the static charges on the colliding air masses allow the condensational nuclei to attract each other, and help to generate the rapid precipitation usually seen in narrow frontal boundaries. When the static charged air masses override neutral charged air masses or ground substrate, without confronting other charge fronts, wide areas of gradual drizzle or slow rate precipitation occur.

The condensation of water vapor to liquid reduces the volume of it 1,600 times or so, the net reduction in air volume due to the rate of precipitation determines the lowered pressure in the front. During the resultant precipitation, the static charges in the air mass traveling through the cloud are left on the droplets and the now cooler and de-ionized air exits the cloud denser, forming down bursts and other outflows.

The charge gradient between the air masses powers the inter cloud lightning, and the charge gradient between the ground substrate, and the resultant net cloud charge powers the cloud to ground lightning. The static charges bled to the ground substrate bias it, so the last wave of frontal activity through an area set the stage for the lightning interactions with further invading air masses. Storms traveling along standing frontal boundaries have mostly inter cloud discharges, where storms on a fast moving front, have a lot more cloud to ground discharges.

Increases in the global homopolar generator magnetic fields, increases the pole to equator potential, slows down the polar negative leakage, increases the generation of positive ions at the equator and ITZ, and during the charging cycle time inhibits tropical precipitation rates. Adds energy to hurricanes moving to the mid latitudes, in synch with the lunar crossings (North or South). With the inverse for periods of decreases in field strength, the global circuit discharges through fast moving polar air masses that carry strong static discharges that when meeting equatorial air masses give rise to intense thunderstorms.

At times of the year when the Earth comes into alignment with other planets, these effects are increased in proportion to resultant magnetic flux changes, and are felt as changes in the global weather patterns. The heliocentric conjunctions of other planets also affect the Earth’s global circuit to some degree, depending on the planets’ sizes and heliocentric angular proximity to the Earth.

When there are several large planets in close heliocentric proximity, as in the case of the 1981/1982 "Grand Alignment," approaching the point of closest alignment, magnetic fields of the sun are drawn out and solar storms of particles escape with them. The induced surges in the global circuit produce massive magnetic sub storms, and waves of free electrons, starting as expansive surges in the aurora displays, then cascading down from the poles. The power outages that accompany them are a result of the large currents carried through the common ground busses, of the system, conducting from Northern extremes to more Southern areas. When the current surges are rapid enough to generate frequencies that can be coupled through the power transformers, they induct out of phase currents into the primaries of the power grid over loading them.

As an example of the long term charging effects of the global circuit, the North African drought preceding the peak of the charging effects, was due to the resultant poleward expansion of the subtropical jet streams. (Jet streams form where the edge of a charged air mass meets neutral, or ion depleted mid latitude air masses.)

As the solar and lunar declination came into synch at 23 1/2 degrees, in 1982/83 their primary and secondary declinational tidal bulges enhanced each other, and pumped the Pacific marine layer over and around the Rockies and the Andes mountains that usually turn it back to the west to form the trade winds. Because of the Grand Alignment’s enhancement of the normal homopolar generator’s driving fields the effects were much stronger than usual. During the ensuing wet period as discharging started in the Northern hemisphere, large volumes of mid-latitude air dried out and regained a neutral static charge. The Lunar declinational angle peaked around September of 1987 and was decreasing again, causing an increase in the polar out wash of this dry air, producing the North American Midwestern drought from 1987 to 1991.

The Canadian air mass cycle lasting from November 27th 1990 to the 23rd of December 1990 was enhanced in volume and speed by the depolarizing effects of a conjunction of Mars with Earth. The resultant avalanche of polar air swept into Southern California faster than they could pump water to the oranges. (A good example of a short duration, but intense pulse of homopolar effects.) This effect will probably be repeated to some extent during the Canadian air mass cycle starting February 10, 1995, through March 8, 1995. Due to the Earth/Mars heliocentric conjunction on February 12,1995, while the two planets are almost alone on this side of the Sun once again.

There are several periodicities that occur in the research that have counterparts in the timing of interplanetary ‘Heliocentric Conjunction Periods.’ The 27 month QBO signal appears to be in synch with the (HCP) of Mars and Jupiter, which just happens to be 30 cycles of 27.32 day lunar declination periods. The 25 month component appears to be in synch with the HCP of Mars and Saturn, A 13 month periodicity in synch with the HCP of Earth and Jupiter.

Glenn Briar has been helping me with this line of study for several years and has been very helpful, the last news I got from him concerning his evaluation of what I think I’ve found, is the preliminary results of a study of lag, lag correlated monthly averages, that he thought showed a strengthening of the 54 day pattern and a strong mode at 240 27.32 Lunar Declinational months, and his advice at that time was to use the entire 240 lunar declinational month pattern as a set as the repeatability looked good. I had already at that time started to look into the HCP’s and had found that there was indeed a better repeatability if I used 8 sets of the 27 calendar months of the QBO Mars/Jupiter HCP and then adjusted to the closest Lunar declinational cycle, which ended up being about the same as he had proposed (6554 days).

In April of 1989 I discovered that there was a repeating pattern in the satellite photos I saw in the library at M.I.T.’s building 54. In alternating cycles of Lunar declination, starting at Maximum North, through maximum South, back to North again. There appears to be two different types of air mass movement regimes. One with outbreaks of Alberta clippers through the cycle and the alternate cycle dominated by a deepening Pacific marine layer coming in off the west coast. The resultant 54.6 day pattern can again be folded over to a 109 day cycle that shows an alternation of the Alberta clipper tracks coming down the east slope of the Rockies, with tracks through N. & S. Dakota/Great lakes areas.

Three multiples of this pattern is 327/328 days, and it is probably this that gives the persistence to the annual reference used by CAC in generating their seasonal forecasts. There is a repeatability in the 18.6 Year Mn cycle of Lunar declination that is usable when the 54.6 or 109 day cycle is compensated for. The 240 units of the 27.32 period or 6554 days gives a better pattern of repeatability, but compensation for skewing on the 18.6 year pattern after two or three cycles is needed. I found the best pattern of repeatability so far, results when the Mars/Jupiter HCP is used to gauge the skewing skip periods. There results a jump of 20 years then between the 12-15-1973 reference year and the 1-1-1994 forecast period year, for equivalent synchronization of all the component periodicities. The 18.6 year Mn cycle, Lunar phase, anomalistic cycle, tidal bulge location on the surface of the Earth, and the 27 month Mars/Jupiter HCP.

What needs to be done to generate a national forecast to test my hypothesis is to start with the Daily synoptic maps for the date January 18, 1938 for day 1 of cycle 1, January 1, 1956 for day 1 of cycle 2, December 15, 1973 for day 1 of cycle 3. Forecast for day one of cycle 4 is January 1, 1994.

First compute the average of the locations of the fronts and their associated lows from the past three cycles, plot them in, and locate the average center of the highs in the expanding, warming invading northern air masses and then plot them in, where the average location would have them indicated to be. Then proceed on to the next day’s map, this process repeated for each day until you have constructed the whole years’ forecast. To generate more years of forecast just keep up the process for up to 18 years.

The repeatability of the cyclic pattern generated from the synergetically acting global atmospheric circulation’s driving forces should give results equal to the accuracy of the current three day forecast. The starting dates for January 1, 1995 are January 18, 1939 for Cycle 1, December 31, 1956, for Cycle 2, and December 15, 1974 for cycle 3.

The single point data sources I have processed this way, show a repeatable pattern that when used as a forecast, without any compensation for residual differences between the cyclic patterns, yields reliability about equal to the three day forecast. I would like to get access to whole USA daily synoptic weather maps for the source years to test the hypothesis on a larger scale.

I have a McIntosh IICi with 32 Meg of RAM And 230 Meg of hard drive, I can import graphics and Pics data into the Delta Graphics Pro 3.5 software I am using to generate the resultant forecasts in a graphic format. I feel confident that with this data base I should be able to generate a daily national synoptic map forecast for the period 1994 through 1996, that should run on the average as good as the three day forecasts would for the same time period.

The overlap in 1994 would give you time to look at the "hind cast accuracy", and the rest would be a good "acid test" period to see how this process would preform for you. The relationship between these driving forces should give a good picture of the process of the Indian monsoons, ENSO effects and improve the forecasting of the tracks of Hurricanes and Typhoons. As they start production as the moon heads South, shift gears from tropical storm around maximum South, to hurricane strength, and loop or turn off toward the Northeast as the moon crosses the equator headed North, and by maximum North lunar declination have dissipated.





I have tried to logically sort out the conceivable links between the specialties needed to solve the weather’s Geophysical picture. There are several sections that are interrelated, and cannot be separated in regard to the weather prediction problem. The field of Meteorology has become fixated on the large body of information available on the lower atmosphere, and the solar heat input. In order to simplify their equations to manageable sizes, the field has chosen to ignore any thing confusing the general picture. In the process I feel that some of the most important factors needed to get a good answer have been eliminated from the mix. I think that there are many important forces at work affecting the progression of fronts across the face of the Earth.

The Sun is one huge magnetic dynamo and most of the Planets have rather large magnetospheres, the interactions of which haven’t been studied well. There are research papers in geophysics that can be used to infer these interactions and their effects on the Earth’s weather on a global scale. I have attempted to reason out the possibilities of these effects, and to incorporate them into the current forecasting methods.

Looking at the interactions of the Moon and the Earth with the tidal, gravitational, and magnetic forces in the solar system that formed with the condensation of the matter into this planetary system, it becomes obvious to me that the answer to the Earth’s evolutionary puzzle was to make a two body mass, at this distance from the Sun, with all of the orbital dynamics still seen today, between the Earth and Moon. Looking at the natural progression of the trend in the Earth’s development as a work in progress, I started looking for forces at work upon the atmosphere.

Looking through the folklore, old wives tales, mythology, and American Indian lore, I came across a description of the construction sequence of Stonehenge and other stone circles. It seems that the builders of Stonehenge were more concerned with Lunar Declination than Lunar Phase, Ecliptic plane crossings than Equatorial crossings, and were preoccupied with eclipses of the Sun and Moon.

Reading through research journals, I found that there was a large body of research on Lunar phase effects, some on ecliptic plane crossings, and some effects due to tidal and gravitational waves. I looked into Lunar declinational effects and found nothing in the research data base, so I started plotting local climatological data, along side lunar phase, tidal, declinational position in regard to both the Equator and the Ecliptic plane, and the variations of the Moon’s orbital speed.

This is a brief overview of what I have found and I am convinced that the forces driving the global circulation are really solar system wide. I am not well versed in the interplanetary magnetic field interactions that I need to prove the mechanism I am suggesting, as I have not found a readily available source of information on this subject.

I found that there was a better correlation between the Lunar declination, with the swings of the jet streams than any other Lunar orbital parameter. Watching the satellite photos on TV and looking at an ephemeris nightly for several months, I soon found that there was indeed a good correlation between the frontal movement and Lunar declinational movement.

I had the opportunity to go to Boston the first week in April of 1989. While in the area I stopped by M.I.T. Building 54 to discuss my ideas with someone there, but I arrived as almost everyone was leaving for an International convention in Madrid, Spain. I spent most of the next five days looking through the Satellite photos and weather maps in the library. I found there was a repeating pattern in the satellite photos I saw in the library. In alternating cycles of Lunar declination, starting at Maximum North, through maximum South, back to North again.

There appears to be two different types of air mass movement regimes. One with outbreaks of Alberta clippers through the cycle and the alternate cycle dominated by a deepening Pacific marine layer coming in off the west coast. The resultant 54.6 day pattern can again be folded over to a 109 day cycle that shows an alternation of the Alberta clipper tracks coming down the east slope of the Rockies, with tracks through N. and S. Dakota, then South into the gulf states. 54/55 days later the Alberta clipper tracks follow a Great lakes area invasion site and then track out thru the East coast.

In the process of talking to Glenn Briar about his research and mine, he mentioned that I might look at patterns around 6575 days long, as he had found good lag, lag correlations in my data around that periodicity. He then recalled that there was a modality of all of the orbital parameters of the Moon around 6554 days as well as the Heliocentric alignment of the inner planets. In 6554 days the Earth makes almost 18 orbits, Mars 9 orbits, Venus 24 orbits, and Mercury makes 74 and a half orbits.

I started looking at these time scales, and there staring out at me was a view of interlocking cycles of interplanetary interaction, that seems to explain a lot of the periodicities mentioned in a lot of the research. Mars laps Jupiter every 27 months, or 30 Lunar declinational cycles, the strongest of the QBO cycle tempos. With the timing, of the ‘Mars/Jupiter Heliocentric conjunctions’ synchronizing with the times of peak upper level zonal wind speeds. Earth laps Jupiter every 13 months or 14 lunar declinational cycles, another of the strong periodicities and almost half of the 27 month period. Earth laps Mars every 25 months, another of the strong QBO cycle tempos.

If I start with the 6554 day pattern, and divide by the 27.32 day period, I get 240 lunar declinational cycles, or eight times the 30 lunar declinational periods of the QBO cycle. Also being divisible by 4 the integrity of either the 54 day, or 109 day patterns of global circulation is preserved. The Heliocentric conjunctions of the inner planets got me thinking about what were the periodicities of the outer planets Heliocentric conjunctions?

The time it takes for Jupiter to lap Saturn can be found if I add one 27 month M/JHC QBO cycle to the 18 Year period of 6554 days, the J/SHC meshes with the peak of the wet period in the Midwestern 20 year drought cycle. If I add one more 27 month M/JHC QBO cycle, I get the periodicity of the sunspot cycle or the time needed for Mars to gain 10 laps on Jupiter and for both to be back at the same place relative to the star field. The time it takes Saturn to lap Neptune is about 36 years or about twice the 6554 day periodicity.

In all cases when there is a heliocentric conjunction between the Earth and any of the other planets, or between any two planets down stream from the Earth in the solar wind, there is an (Earth) Global homopolar charging effect that shortens the length of day, as it tries to speed up the Earth, and a surge of equatorial air pumped into the mid-latitude, up to the point of the conjunction. After the peak of coupling the length of day increases as the Earth slows down and the discharge of the global fields takes the form of negative charged out washes of polar air masses that sweep into the mid-latitude, through the Alberta clipper type cycles in place at that time, and generate intense to severe thunder storms. The timing and duration of these cycles depend on the size of the magnetospheres of the planets involved and is usually in the range of 5 to 10 days for both the charge and discharge cycles.

The length of time it takes the Earth to lap Jupiter is almost 13 months or 14 lunar declinational cycles or 383 days, the synoptic map similarity on this time period is good for the 54 day periodicity, but out of phase with the wet/dry periods of the 27 month QBO Cycle, and out of step for the 109 day pattern so the (383 day period) of the Alberta Clipper routing is not optimal to use as a forecast tool. However the 766 day repeat pattern is back in phase to the day and fairly close to in phase for the 27 month QBO cycle so these precipitation data sets to be used for a forecast match better at this period.

To generate a forecast using this natural analog cyclic pattern, I started by Inserting the best matches of the 27 month Mars/Jupiter HC?/QBO cycles in as the starting dates for a sequence of 6554 days of local climatological data. Plotting the combinational pattern on computer, generates an 18 year long pattern with a repeatability for day by day temperatures that once again, repeats for the present cycle with a greater accuracy than the three day forecast averages.

The state wide spread of temperatures and precipitation amounts from these past periods when used as a forecast on a day to day basis yields an up to 18 year long forecast data set that does about 70% better than Climatology, for the Midwestern USA and I expect it will work worldwide as well.

With the purchase of the NOAA "Cooperative Summary of the Day" CD Rom data base, and a new Power Macintosh 9600/200 with DOS/Windows on a PCI card, I am extracting data sets for whole state forecasts. It appears that the pattern I found in the local area data sets works for the cd/whole state data, just as well in the plains area, and better the farther East I go from the lee side of the Rockies

The problems I am having with this forecast method stem from the Earth’s interactions with the outer planets, resulting in short term patterns of global homopolar charging and then quick discharging patterns, that are not in synch with the same outer planet / Earth HC’s from the previous 6554 day patterns of inner planet heliocentric conjunctions and oppositions.

These excursions can be adjusted for by comparing their affected departures from the previous forecast patterns, based on the previous 766 day period, and then reimposing these departures into the current forecast data sets as a corrective bias. The data set I have now (1900-1993) is not current enough to be able to do this at this time.

I would like to have an active program that could process the data base, generate a corrected data set, as per the previous paragraph, and plot the averaged corrected data, onto a national map, at the original longitude and latitude of the observation point. Then I could display the resultant set of temperatures as contour lines, and precipitation as XYZ height contours, at the resolution of original data point density.

From my observed results, I firmly believe a synoptic map based forecast could also be generated with this method, if access to a digitized archaic synoptic map data base could be found that goes back at least 40 years. Other weather related data bases could be used directly to create a forecast for, power plant fuel consumption, Gas, fuel oil, river levels, hail damage, irrigation requirements, ect.


Richard Holle


Filed under: — by Richard Holle @ 1:18 am on November 8, 1997