Progress on updates

From my years of electronics communications work modulating and then demodulating signals that have been transmitted over a radio frequency carrier methods, I can see ways the overall long term signals in the weather and climate data could be understood.

If the longest wave pattern indicative of a composite wave pattern is used as the key for the demodulation of the packets of individual periods of oscillation patterns, then the over lapping of several periods of these patterns should give an indication of the reproducibility of the original signals.

The inner planets and the outer planets have their own separate periods of harmonic oscillation as a result of billions of years of gravitational, tidal and electromagnetic interactions that are in a resonate pattern, the inner planets have a beat frequency with an about 6585.32 day period (the Saros cycle) with the outer planets settled into a period of somewhere between 172 and 179 years.

Most of the cyclic patterns seen in the above graphs are a result of the shorter term periods of interactions of both the inner planets and the outer planets beating together and generating these short term affects in the global circulation patterns.
As RC Saumarez says:
May 16, 2011 at 10:14 am
“We only have one climate record and therefore we cannot use an ensemble approach without segmentation of the data and thus limit the minimum observable frequency.”

To solve this problem I looked at the last three patterns of the 6558 day period, (the Saros cycle minus one 27.32 day lunar declination cycle, for a total of 240 declinational 27.32 day periods)  overlaid them at the daily weather data level, and plotted the resultant combined signal for Precipitation, and temperature patterns for the USA, then extended that cyclic daily pattern via maps generated for further interpenetration for a six year period, and plotted out the resultant maps to show the repeating reoccurring patterns in the global circulation, as a ( 6 year long stretch), we are now ~40 months into the set of maps originally posted onto my site as a 6 years long forecast to show part of the current repeat of the 6558 day long cycle.

The precipitation patterns repeat well enough to show the locations of the repeat of the 1974 tornado out break we had this spring, and will also show the repeat of the severe flooding in Australia. The problem with this forecast technique is the outer planet ~172/179 year pattern is out of phase with the inner planet harmonics so the interactions between the inner and outer planet periods needs to be compensated for as well.

The best method I have come up with so far would be to plot the data excursions of the actuals weather, driven by the outer planets, from the expected past 6558 day patterns, inner planets repeatable patterns by looking at the 5 to 10 day long disruptions caused by the current outer planet interactions at  heliocentric (or Synod) conjunctions with the Earth, to use as the anomalies, to form corrective algorithms to adjust the inner planet patterns for the effects of the outer planet modulations.

The Earth has a synod conjunction with each of the four major gas planets with a little over a year between impulses, (~+2 days for Neptune, ~+4 days for Uranus, ~+13 days for Saturn, ~+34 days for Jupiter) these past almost annual periods of reoccurring effects, could be segmented and applied into the composite forecast as an adjustment algorithm to further enhance the inner planet pattern match, to increase the accuracy (~85%) of the inner planet 6558 day pattern to closer to 95% with the addition of the compensation for the outer planet interactive influences.

I am in the process of rewriting the map making software to fine tune the resultant process to get a better repeatability of the temperatures as well. With the next posting of updated several year long series of forecast maps I will be including the areas of Alaska, Canada, and Australia (with enough hind cast [6+ months] to see how well it did with predicting the end of the drought flooding there). I will be adding a fourth cycle going back another 6558 day period to use the additional analog year starting in ~1938 for 2011.

If any of the readers here have helpful suggestions on how this could be better accomplished, I would like to hear from them.

Filed under: In other online forums,Natural Processes,Project Progress,Supporting Research — by Richard Holle @ 10:04 am on May 16, 2011


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