RICKIES rapid climate change events
Implications and Consequence of Flat Temperatures for 16 plus years and No Tropical Troposphere Hot Spot
The fact that there has been no planetary warming for 16 plus years and the fact that atmospheric temperatures have not increased at roughly 10 km above the surface, in the tropics as the CO2 warming theory predicts when CO2 increased, disproves the extreme AWG paradigm. A lack of warming can be explained away, in the short term, with heating hiding in the ocean or some unexplained mechanism that is cooling the planet. Hansen’s particulate reflection hypothesis fails to explain the lack of warming, as particulates do not move from hemisphere to hemisphere unlike atmospheric gases such as CO2 which equalize in about a year between hemispheres. The particulates are emitted in the Northern Hemisphere which is where the warming has occurred, particularly at high Northern Latitudes. The lack of warming has occurred in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere. (i.e. The lack of warming mechanism must explain the fact that observed warming has not been global.) There is no explanation for the fact that there is not observed warming of tropical troposphere (10 km) tropical troposphere hot spot. (The lack of a tropical troposphere hot spot is just ignored.)
Unequivocal planetary cooling, as opposed to a lack of warming is a game changer. The public will require, will demand a definite, logical, physical explanation for global cooling. There is now observation evidence of the start of a mechanism change which will lead to significant planetary cooling. (If and when there is unequivocal evidence of cooling, I can provide an explanation of how the sun is causing the cooling and what to expect if a solar forced Heinrich event is unfolding.)
It is difficult to imagine how the public and the media will react to planetary cooling, after years upon years of statements that the 20th century warming was cause by the 20th century increase in atmospheric CO2. The so called ‘skeptics’, ‘deniers’ have noted that that the planet was cyclically warmed and then cooled in the past in cycles, 1450 years plus or minus 400 years (Daansgaard-oescherger cycle) and roughly every 6000 years to 8000 years (inhibited during the interglacial period due to orbital position) abruptly cooled (Heinrich event).
Implicit, fundamental to the extreme AGW warming paradigm is that observations and analysis confirmed by 1000s of specialists with 95% confidence, confirm that the planet will continue warm (possibly dangerously), if CO2 levels are not reduced from the current 0.039%, back to 0.035%. CO2 will increase by 2100 to around 0.0560% unless the world moves to a war type effort complete with multiple technical and economic science miracles to reduce CO2 to 0.035%.
It is odd the specialists have not explained that there are periods in the paleoclimatic record of millions of years when atmospheric CO2 was high (0.15%) and the planet was cold and periods when CO2 was low and the planet was very warm (0.03%, i.e. no ice sheets and so on.). The proxy data indicates the greenhouse gas forcing mechanism saturates, it is expected due to physical processes in the atmosphere which resist climate changes and attempt to maintain the planet at a constraint temperature. It is odd the specialists have not explained that they do not understand what causes the glacial/interglacial cycle (there has been 22 past glacial/interglacial cycles) and that the past interglacial cycles have ended abruptly rather than gradually.
What will the public reaction be to the obvious massive scientific effort to hide these facts and the media effort to push the extreme AGW paradigm myth if the planet starts to cool?
The creation of the climate hockey stick (remove the Medieval warm period, remove the Holocene interglacial Optimum super warm period, remove the Little Ice Age, and so on) was necessary as the creation of the flat part of the hockey stick hides the observational fact that planetary temperature increased and decreased driven by an unknown forcing mechanism.
If planetary temperature warmed and cooled cyclically in the past, then the late 20th century warming could also have been caused by the same cyclic forcing mechanism that caused cyclic climate change in the past.
There is now the first observational evidence that planet is starting to cool. The planetary cooling is coincidental with an abrupt, unexplained change to the sun.
It is odd that the paleoclimatic specialists have do not publically acknowledge that they do not understand what cause the glacial/interglacial cycle. Interglacial periods end abruptly rather gradually. There is evidence in the paleoclimatic record of cyclic abrupt climate changes that correlates with changes in ice core and sea floor sediment of cosmogenic isotope changes which indicates there is in every occurrence of the abrupt climate change event an abrupt change to the sun. It is only in the last 10 years that geomagnetic proxy analysis specialist have reached a consensus that there is an abrupt geomagnetic field change that is concurrent to the abrupt climate change event and to the abrupt solar change event.
The proxy data (climatic and geomagnetic) indicates that there abrupt changes to both climate and to the geomagnetic field. As discovery of the abrupt changes was by proxy researchers who specialist in proxy researcher and do not not attempt to explain what physically caused what happened cyclically in the past, the first effort by the proxy researchers was to attempt to remove the anomaly rather than to create an anomaly that is physically impossible to explain based on the assumed mechanism for the creation of the geomagnetic field and for the mechanisms that affect planetary climate.
For example, during the Younger Dryas abrupt climate (12,900 years ago) change cycle, the planet when from interglacial warm to glacial cold with 70% of the cooling occurring in less than 10 years. The discovery of abrupt climate change was not expected. There is no mechanism explanation for it. Due to mechanisms (what causes abrupt climate change and the interglacial/glacial cycle, during part of the cycles the Arctic warms while the Antarctic cools. This is called the polar see-saw by the specialists. The polar see-saw phenomenon inhibits the abrupt change event from the Antarctic ice sheet record. The evidence of cyclic abrupt climate change (Heinrich events) has discovered by analyzing the Greenland ice sheet ice cores. The ice core analysis specialist did not initially believe the evidence of cyclic abrupt change was correct and hence drilled a second ice core in the Greenland ice sheet to confirm there has cyclic abrupt climate change. (The specialists called the cyclic abrupt climate changes RICKIES rapid climate change events)