Australian interest in global ocean tidal movements and flood patterns
Loc: Southern Victoria
Funnily enough a so called Expert authority didn’t have the balls to call the drought over when Ocean Indices were already well and truly on their way to deliver rains Months in advance .
I know where i think money should be spent for Weather related grants .
” http.//resources.metapress.com/pdf_preview.axd?code=431g174265t1h260&size=large ”
Previous Entries .
Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
So you proved a trend. Yep the soi has trends, so does the MJO but a cyclone/flood occuring every 18 or 19 years doesn’t or the history books would be littered with examples of them occuring as regular as clockwork every 18 or 19 years.
A cycle that can be pin pointed as a regular cycle that occurs every 11 years and 18 days, or 19 years or 18 years or any other number you wish to come up with and be used as a basis to predict weather is unproveable. Or are the numbers too restraining. I didn’t come up with the cycle or the lengths discussed, an astrologer did. If you have a theory then by all means chuck it up the flag pole and see if it flies. But astology isn’t a scientific principle and niether are regular cycles for weather predictions.
Weather is dynamic.
Yes Dynamic . But Rhythmic none the less .
Source: Google – “The Flooded Yarra , malvern-central ” , and also “FloodVic ” site ( history ) .
History Yarra and Melbourne surrounds Flooding .
1802 -(NO RECORDS) -1839 ,1832 ,1842 ,1842 ,1844 ,1849 ,1863 ,1891 ,1901 ,1923 ,1934 ,1952 , 1954 ,1973 ,1974 ,1984 ,1999 ,2003 , 2010-
1805 , 1823 , 1842 , 1861 ,1879 ,1898 ,1917 , 1935 , 1954 , 1973 , 1991 , 2010
Northern Vic Flood Events
(No early records?? , ((Murrumbigee 1844 , 1878 , 1879 , 1894)) ,1898 , 1916 , 1917 ,1955 ,1956 , 1974 , 1975 , 1998 , 2010 –
Now as I’ve previously mentioned I’m not talking one off events more a Seasonal Anomaly , As Victorians know the ground has to get wet first before we see any sort of river rises let alone flooding . The Tides influence around the Saros cycle of Closer proximity of the Moon is a gradual rise and most of these events would have to coincide with a La Nina / Negative IOD , Both or some sort of mix .
Wet years tend to fall around these Moon climax’s give or take 1.5 years either side . And also dependant of strength of Particular coinciding La Ni /-IOD .
Where we don’t see any thing around these dates we see a year very close to 6 years either side .
Whether or not there is another increase in planetary effected Tide every 6.2 years with the 18.6 year cycle is a question for a Qualified Astrophysics Major .
So I’ve given the longest period of available Australian records , with a linking pattern .
And I’ve provided a connection between a major Meterological influence from Tidal origins ( Indonesian ThroughFlow ) , which is the driver of transitions in all things Australian rainfall indicators ( La Nina / IOD ) . Obviously as more and more research and interest is pushed toward the study of Indirect influences on Sea Surface and more importantly sub-seasurface currents comes into the spotlight , we will see more far reaching effects . ( Butterfly Effect) .
Please correct me .
Because with the late nights comes a multitude of mistakes ……
Previous entry by myself earlier in this thread . (Page 5)
Edited by Southern Oracle (03/29/11 06:21 PM)
Edit Reason: Copy/paste errors